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Edited by Christian Lowe | Contact

Limelight for Pentagon Withdrawal Plan

A week ago, this blog picked up on something the big media had all-but-ignored: a Pentagon plan to draw the number of U.S. troops down to about 92,000 by the end of next year.

casey_talk.jpg"I would think that the fact that the DOD announced we were lowering the number of troops in Iraq for 2006 would be huge news, but no one seems to care," the site's author, Pierce Wetter, e-mailed me.

That was before Rep. John Murtha's call to bring the troops home. Now, suddenly, withdrawal plans are all the rage. Especially ones "drafted by Gen. John Abizaid and Gen. George Casey, the two top U.S. commanders of the war," as NBC notes.

If Iraqi elections are successful in December and a new parliament seated by January, withdrawal could begin almost immediately. Military officials say it would be an incremental or phased withdrawal — beginning slowly at first, with one or two battalions — up to 2,000 troops at a time.

Entire battalions of soldiers and Marines, now scheduled for duty in Iraq next year, would also be told they don't have to go. Some American troops would be placed on temporary standby in neighboring Kuwait — ready to respond, if needed, to any major outbreaks of violence in Iraq.

THERE'S MORE: In the comments, Murdoc says the 92K number doesn't include Marines... And "Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, addressing the renewed debate over American troops in Iraq, said today that any paring down of the forces there would depend on military and security conditions, and that current troop levels must be maintained at least until the December elections in Iraq," according to the Times.

AND MORE: John Robb, as usual, has smart things to say about this. Particularly, about the natural consequence(s) of the isolation of US decision makers from the external reference environment. Instead of making connections, we severed them," he writes.

This isolation... drove: Bad decision making. The willingness to accept flawed intelligence on Iraq's WMD capabilities. The failure to stop the looting after the invasion. The decision to disband the Iraqi military. The failure to send enough troops.

Ad hoc planning and strategy development. The lack of a plan to win the peace in the Iraq. The plethora of different military plans since then: build Sunni militias (Fallujah), stability for elections and a political solutions, aggressive counter-insurgent sweeps, clear-and-hold (oil-spots), etc.

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Posted by: rob at June 25, 2007 02:20 AM


Hmmm... No Marines? That's true.

Though some of the Marines there now were already part of OIF-4.

As for not drawing down troops until after December, my understanding of the rotation plan is that we have a temporary "bump" from Oct-December from overlapping the rotation plan, so there's kind of a planned reduction in January:

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Posted by: Pierce Wetter at November 21, 2005 10:59 AM


C-Low's capacity to rewrite recent history is quite startling. The Shah's regime was staunchly pro-US, mainly because the Western powers engineered the coup that returned him to absolute power, and for the next 25 years were instrumental in maintaining him in his position. The Iranian revolution, if I remember correctly, was both popular and extremely anti-American; it led to the downfall of Carter - Mossadeq's revenge as it were. Most Iranians are capable of distinguishing between the US people and the US government - they like the former but are suspicious of the hegemonic record of the latter; the parallel situation obtains with regards to America.

As regards Sadr - I'm not aware that he subscribes to the Khomeinist position regarding the guardianship of the clerics; certainly his object of emulation, before he was disowned by him, was one of the dissident Iranian clerics in this regard. However, that does not alter the fact that the default government in Iraq will be dominated by religious Shia parties that intend to institute some form of Islamic governance; it's also noticeable that since Jafaari came to office that Iraq has signed a non-aggression pact with Iran, an economic cooperation pact, and on Friday, a mutual security cooperation agreement. I doubt that this goes down well with the neocons in Washington, who find themselves in the awkward position of combatting a Sunni insurgency for the benefit of Teheran-allied factions in Iraq; it just wasn't supposed to work out like that.

As regards the balance sheet - well to date OIF and OEF have lead to the deaths of at least 2350 US troops, plus an unknown number of black-ops personnel, plus well in excess of 100 US civilian contractors, plus some 250 allied troops and tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians; not to mention the vast numbers of seriously injured, medically disabled and psychically scarred veterans that this war is leaving in its wake. At the current rate the number of US military/contractor dead that surpasses the victims of 9/11 will be reached by this time next year.

Quite why you think that Iraqis who are currently fighting the US military were ever likely candidates for turning up in the US to blow up churches and shopping malls escapes me; Iraq has however clearly inspired a new generation to blow up trains and buses in London and Madrid. It is undeniable, however, that the invasion and occupation of Iraq has proved to be the gift that keeps on giving as far as Jihadi recruitment is concerned - and if your figure of 20% is to be believed, then we're talking about having to deal with some 120 million male Islamic extremists globally; thankfully I know when people are just making shit up.

This could have been avoided if the Bush administration had not piggy-backed a long-cherished strategic agenda on top of the 9/11 tragedy; the forensic dismantling of AQ would have been far easier to accomplish if the strategy for Afghanistan had been correct, and there had been a significant US force on the ground at Tora Bora to actually capture/kill OBL and AAZ and their associates.

Posted by: dan at November 21, 2005 10:22 AM


Punctuation aside, C-Low does make some good points. As to Aaron's comments, I would refer him to the information coming out from the men and women on the ground in the region. Their words can be seen at Military.com.
A further indication of the coming stability is the invest money now coming into Iraq from Western sources and the Pacific Rim. There is also a story of a car bombing in Iraq being foiled by a neighborhood watch. A neighborhood watch, in Iraq. Can you get more normalized!
People are realizing that for the first time in their lives, they can speak their minds and have it mean something as well. Every protest march they make, every demonstration is not a negative, it is a nail in the coffin of the terrorists. Now the people have begun to realize that they've been lied to, not by Bush, but by the mullahs, by the terrorists, by the left over Baathists, and they are doing something about it.
In Jordan, we had a populist demonstration against the terrorists (boy, did they strike at the wrong target). Then with their lame excuse that the wedding was a cover for a an Israeli Mossad meeting and threatening the royal family, well, stick a fork in them, they're done.
Top this all off with fact that the host nations of the terrorists are beginning to come around to the notion that a proxy war is not as cost effective as they first thought and you have a situation that I wouldn'y call a losing one for our side.
By the way, the information and opinions I have stated here were not drawn from US news sources, with the exception of Military.com, rather they are taken from overseas news sources and by my speaking with co-workers who are Iraqi and still working here as they pass along to me what their relatives over there are saying and doing.
I am also reminded from what my father told me of WWII, about weak spined people who lacked the will to win, who were frightened by the Nazis and the Shogunate, who said we couldn't win then either. True, we had some dark days but, in the end, we prevailed. And we can and will prevail here if we ignore the counsel of cowardice, of fear, and of the weak of resolve.

Posted by: Stormhawk at November 21, 2005 08:30 AM


Once more we here the right's dreams about how we're building an Iraqi army. is there anything other then US pronouncements on the subject to let us know that this is actually happening? that some large combat capable force actually exists?
Yknow, other then the decepticon administrations pronoucements on this subject...

Posted by: Aaron at November 21, 2005 04:08 AM


The Theocracy Iran proxy stuff is BS although if we pull our support will happen. Iran pre-mullahs were staunch US allies and they were Shia and they were Muslim. The Iraqi Shia overwhelmingly deny a Iran style Mullacracy short Sadr that is a small portion of followers. The thing people point to in the Iraqi constitution that they say is Teocracy proof is the part were it says its based on Islam which I would say sounds more like a wise move to avoid the problem we are having today, our constitution was based on christianity, religion is not bad religion is a good thing but just like everything else bad people can turn it into a really bad thing. The protection of minorities and religious freedom is also written in so its not one way only just stating the obvious that if a group of muslims write a constitution it will propably be heavily influenced by Islam. If we pull out early they will be forced into the Iranian arms and the fears will be reality.

Posted by: C-Low at November 20, 2005 05:22 PM


The 92,000 number is not a plan for the force level. It is the total size of the units already marked for deployment. It is not a complete list and it includes 0 Marines.

When there are more than 92,000 troops in Iraq next year we're going to be hearing all about it...because no one seems to understand what that list is.

Posted by: Murdoc at November 20, 2005 04:49 PM


Thier is no major military operations by the terrorist or "minute men" in Iraq. All they can do now is kill civilians in mosque's and funeral precesions. Back when the terrorist were taking over police stations and Iraqi army bases that was worrysome. Besides the jump in the attacks latley are due to the elections and the death nell the terrorist hear from them, more desperation than anything else, the terrorist cant change or stop anything the people will vote the Sunni will participate and the terrorist will kill some civilians but change or stop nothing. Saddam kept the military leadership dominated by Sunni's to keep rebelion down and inefective. A army must have leadership to be effective leadership is not learned in a couple months of boot camp basics it takes time. It took us over 2yrs to train and sift out the recruits to get us were we are at a growing effective Iraqi force. The whole point of the Iraq war albiet the pres being unable to make the case for but the whole idea is that 20% of the Muslim pop is radicalized and after 9-11 we could no longer ingnore the terrorist like Clinton did all the while their attacks just got bigger and bigger we had a choice try to kill 20% of a population across an entire globe, continue to ignore a growing threat, hold the status quo of strongmen and such that obviosly was not working, accept a growing civilian death toll to terrorist, surrender now convert and go back to the middle ages, or enable the 80% of muslims that are good people contain and control their 20% radicals like we do in the West we dont need others to check our radicals like the Nazi's and such we handle our own. Iraq is this process in action we are empowering the 80% good and at the same time we are
1) bleeding the enemy
2) forcing the enemy to send resources and new recruits into thier homeland fist rather than our homeland (were do you think all of those suicide bombers would have gone if not Iraq and dont give me the Iraq made the problem crap 9-11, 2embasies africa, saudi hotel, cole, multiple assasinated cia agents across ME, ect.... would dis-prove that hair brain crap outright)
3)forcing a enemy to thier weeknesses and our strengths we have powerful military they dont so their main weapons are terrorism fear killing civilians that in the states play to thier strength our weekness (we are simple to free to ever protect against terrorism and me and most citizens are not going to give up our freedom me personally would rather kill all the muslims than give up my freedom hopefully that choice will not come to be) by this I mean when the terrrorist kill civilians in Iraq makes great PR for our media and the LLL message of choas but the fact is everytime they kill other muslims they loose more support and more family become their enemy the Muslims are well known for blood fued (those who careless when it is just infedels are now leaning not so much for our side of the fence but definatley off thier side now and this number is growing everyday more Muslims are killed at the hands of terrorist who really are nothing more than doped up murderers who utopia is domination of all of course in the name of allah.

One thing that amazes me is the fact that the LLL's can in the same breath say that the Iraqi terrorist are undefeatable with unbelievable ability and ferocity then turn around and claim that the Iraqi miltary is in capable cowards who cannot be trained or made to work. They are the same people the Iraqi's.


this war in historical context is a unbelieavable sucess so far. We have invaded conquered and occupied two hostile nations for nearly 3yrs and have lost just over 2000 soldiers sacrificed still only 2/3 the number of civilians we lost on 9-11. If losses like these are really unbearable to the US pop we are a dead doomed nation and I would suggest we start learning Arabic reading the Koran or maybe learning Chineese because when nations lose the will to defend themselves it is just a matter of time before they become a piece of someone eleses territory ask Tibet their is a reason every nation on earth has a military. During our occupation we have taken a hostile pop in the heart of our enemies homeland with no history of democracy and enabled the 80% to build its own gov, build a military, form political groups, write a constitution, break the culture of fear that Saddam made, and engage in the war to check and control that 20% radical, ect... huge progress. The 20% Sunni of course are pissed they went from the dominate race in Iraq to just 20% of a country. The Sunni thou are educated and westernized and once they realize like they are begining to that the good old days are gone they will join the gov and use their education expeirenc advantage to take important place in the Iraqi elite and gov not domination but better than nothing.


You can argue on which option we should have taken above you can argue which battlefield would have been better than Iraq to conquier then enable the 80% good to control the 20% radical. You can argue the way we are doing this or that. In WW2 you could argue which site was best to make the march on germany but onece the troops hit the beaches of Normandy it was about makin it work. But the simple fact is that now we are engaged thier is no turning back victory is the only option and we all must work together to achieve such at all cost its life or death.

Posted by: C-Low at November 20, 2005 04:44 PM


We've heard these kinds of reports before. I'll believe a large-scale withdrawal of troops when I see it.

Posted by: David Axe at November 20, 2005 03:28 PM


> Hence this news story just dosn't fit with
> what they want you to beleive.

Anyone who thinks the vultures aren't already circling Iraq, at this very moment, is sadly mistaken.

It may not be a quagmire in quite the same way the Vietnam was and there may be no decernable ho-chi-minh trail, but the reality is that the US had done nothing but hasten the establishment of an Islamic theocracy... this is *NOT* good news.

The number one indicator, that things are really going south, will be if the exit plan trims troop levels everywhere but locations with easy exit plans (a la Siagon). Those locations are the boarder with Jordan, Turkey and Kuwait. Hell, I bet Iran would even offer safe transit for any troops/contractors leaving Iraq at the last possible moment. The only notable exception would be Bagdad, which can't be ignored... all eyes will be looking there for a good old fashion Siagon like fleeing. If that's the last note that the current administration goes out on, I think *everyone* can count on lots of changes happening very quickly in lots of places.

In short, I don't think it would be possible to prop up the current paper tigers currently masqerading as Iraqi "security forces" long enough for a non-run-for-your-life type of withdrawal.

Posted by: atroll at November 20, 2005 10:03 AM


er, its blindingly obvious why this was not reported - because its very good news! Yes its that simple current leftist mainstream media only want you to think 'quagmire' about iraq and the end is nigh. Hence this news story just dosn't fit with what they want you to beleive.

Posted by: Shep_UK at November 20, 2005 08:03 AM


I think that the 2 operative words in the report are "if" and "could". There were troop drawdowns, IIRC, in early 2004, when the US troop complement briefly touched 105,000; there are currently about 150,000 deployed.

And what would count as a "major" outbreak of violence? It strikes me that there are major outbreaks on a near daily basis already.

Posted by: dan at November 19, 2005 04:14 PM


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