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Edited by Christian Lowe | Contact

China Top Card in Pentagon Shuffle

xin_47080331080723207961.jpgSo, imagine you are the Rumsfeld Defense Department. You are locked in a "global struggle against violent extremists" stretching from"stretching from Indonesia through the Middle East,". You have 150,000 troops stationed in Iraq as the central front in said struggle. The United States is facing major foreign policy crises in Iran and Lebanon, of other which might involve your beloved Pentagon.

You decide to elevate one Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense with regional responsibilities to become a full Assistant Secretary over a region. This is an easy call. You pick: Asia-Pacific.

Oh, sure, sure, you have no exit strategy for Iraq and you are sizing up air defenses around Tehran, but c'mon ... real men hate on China.

Of course, focusing on China ... er the Asia-Pacific ... was the plan, from the first Defense Strategy Review by Andy Marshall which reportedly "cast the Pacific as the most important region for military planners..." I kind of admire the sticktuitiveness of the whole thing, 9/11 and Iraq be damned.

You almost wonder why they didn't have the stones to pin the 9/11 attack on Jiang Zemin. After all, their friends did.

I've posted the new organization at my blog, Arms Control Wonk.com. USD(P) Eric Edelman explained the issue as one of matching up to State and NSC:

The secretary sensed that we were misaligned in some ways ... and we wanted to make it easier for Policy and the (combatant commands) to figure out what the right address was (in the other agencies) to go forward solving problems. I think this will make it a little easier to operate interagency.

Now, when I was at Policy -- oh so briefly -- the fact that the State Department Bureaus were headed by Assistant Secretaries, one level higher than the equivalent DOD offices, was kind of irritating.

And maybe I am being too cynical. As an "Asia expert" -- whatever that means -- I am psyched to see my region getting attention. And, were I ever lucky enough to hold that office at OSD, I'd appreciate the extra step to full Assistant Secretary.

But, really, wouldn't a single "Assistant Secretary for South West and Central Asia" with DASD's for the Middle East, South Asia and Central Asia better protect the country's interests?

-- Jeffrey Lewis, cross posted at Arms Control Wonk.com

Comments

only jokeing stay where you are..

Posted by: alan at September 13, 2006 08:34 PM


Bring It On Man..and we will see who wins)

Posted by: alan at September 13, 2006 08:29 PM


The only freat china posses is nukclaer warheads. but then russa has more of them than any one. WEST Rules man... and thats the FACT

Posted by: alan at September 13, 2006 08:26 PM


The only freat china posses is nukclaer warheads. but then russa has more of them than any one. WEST Rules man..Down with china!!!!

Posted by: alan at September 13, 2006 08:24 PM


what crap..the u.s controys the U.N and britian leads most of eorope..china will Be fucked!

Posted by: alan at September 13, 2006 08:19 PM


Tell em, Kaltes; Real_chinese has been hitting the opium again. However recently in the news, Taiwan has been pulling away from the PRC, so hard that very soon the PRC has no choice but to attack and invade to save face and to get women for their men because the "One Child Policy" has turned China into Homoland and good Commies are not Homos. Maybe,when we attack Iran they will attack Taiwan, then their would be nothing we could do to stop them! God only knows!

Posted by: Jaye at September 3, 2006 10:16 AM


I LOVE THIS:

"In fact,99.9% of the Chinese don't want to fight to anyone in the world,"

"we hardly concern the international affair,we only want to live better..."

AND THEN HE SAYS IN THE SAME POST

"who wants to separate the Taiwan from China,we will destroy whom ,if we can't beat it ,we even destroy the earth with nuclear warhead,that means if we can't live in the earth, we won't let other's live in going on."

So yeah, we are all peaceful and dont want to fight anyone, but interfere with us from waging a war of aggression against a free democracy and we will destroy the entire world to spite you? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I would think this post was a joke, but the sad truth is Ive heard sooo many ignorant typical chinese guys talk like this, it is one of the reasons that I know we will end up in a war with them. China is the next great threat to world peace.

Posted by: Kaltes at September 3, 2006 02:30 AM


Real Chin; Taiwan is pushing the PRC very hard, so soon, very soon the PRC will attack and invade Taiwan and the the Chinese Union will be born with North Korea joining also. So cheer up, drink some Sake and do not destroy the world, thanks.
Sincerely,
Jaye

Posted by: Jaye at September 2, 2006 05:51 PM


Goog,I like The China

Posted by: TOP in China at September 2, 2006 06:54 AM


I am a Chinese in China,In my free time,I like to browse the inland web,But this time, I link to www.military.com by accident.

this is my first time to see the USA's army web.
I browse one article of yours,I AGREE WITH you very much.
In fact,99.9% of the Chinese don't want to fight to anyone in the world,
Every day,the common Chinese put on the focus on the clothes,food, house and action,(in fact now,most of the people can't afford the dear house,the land agents have imperil the stabilization of society),we hardly concern the international affair,we only want to live better...
In China,there are many poor men as africa.Many children have to drop their study due to lanking of money,even 30$ a year.
The goverment's focus is on the economy,especially the farmers' live.
Yes,Now China's economy has developped quickly,but do you know the development is based on the unfair condition including the area difference of China and the developped country's corporation,and so on.


The USA people and goverment only see the national defence of China is being developped,you only cry that the China is imperilling the safety of the USA,
But ,the USA don't see,in fact, the USA has put many the most advanced and powerful weapon around the China,and the Fucking Japanese like a dog followed the USA(Japanese alwys want to aggress China because they think they are the only NO.1 of Asia,Chinese only the No.2,we must followd it,shit,in China,we like to call the Japanese "small Japanese",they like to kill,and cattiness,bite the puny nation (such as the former China)but afraid of the strong nation(such as USA)),if one day ,the Japan is more powerful than USA,it must bite USA,because the USA vanquished the Japan in the world war two.)
So,The Chinese hate Japanese very much.

as above,the USA and Japan have deployed many weapon around the China,all of the Chinese know,Your real aim is China not north Korea.
That the Chinese develop the national defence is forced by the USA and Japan,maybe include the small countrys around the China.

For the Taiwan affair,if you aren't a Chinese,you don't understand the Chinese's feeling.Why does the China exist thounds years on the planet??Because we Chinese's character.We think a family mustn't be separateed by others.Who wants to separate our home,we will fight to whoever.
WE MUST BE A UNION!!!
So,in the world ,who wants to separate the Taiwan from China,we will destroy whom ,if we can't beat it ,we even destroy the earth with nuclear warhead,that means if we can't live in the earth, we won't let other's live in going on.So, the USA's NMD is nothing to do with China.
of course, this is the worst plan.if we can get well with each other,we never wish to fight with USA,Chinese is the normal men,we arn't devil,we wish to live better only.

I think I will be often to browse this web,I want to know American's thinking.

My English is poor,so maybe there are many mistakes,please don't laugh at me.Thank you!!

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Posted by: Real_Chinese at September 2, 2006 06:24 AM


China's economy is growing rapidly. That's because it's easy to grow from nothing. You could teach a caveman how to make fire and you've just given him 10 thousand years of technological development in like half an hour.

China cannot sustain its current economic growth. They've got loads more problems than we ever thought about having. Ever hear of the 4-2-1 problem? That "one child" policy did them a world of hurt.

We've sustained higher economic growth for longer periods than any other country in history. Oh sure, China's economy is growing at 10%, but it still lags far behind ours. Depending on which sources you use, China's economy is smaller than California's.

Posted by: Brian at September 1, 2006 01:46 PM


You people really need to get out and visit the world, instead of listening to selfish politicians in the US. I suggest you go to Macau, China, the Asian Las Vegas. They are not going to be the next Soviet Union. They are Chinese.

China is Communist in name only. They are however a single party state, one that has an identity crisis. It takes decades of institution building to create a democracy. Interaction with the outside world is more important than a democracy at this time. It will be the last to be implemented in China, but all the trends point in that direction, despite the government’s attempt to stop it. China has to create enough jobs for the half billion people still working on the farms, or things could completely collapse under massive civil strife. Unemployed and disenfranchised people are dangerous to governments. China is not interested in starting wars, and neither should we.

I am not writing the US off because we are still wealthier (per Capita GDP) than anyone else in the world, and will always be. Even if China’s growth continues in double digits, which is impossible, they still will be significantly poorer than us, even though their overall GDP will be substantially larger than ours. As we all know, our consumption is important to the rest of the world.

India choosing the US over China not going to happen because it is not in India’s strategic economic interest. Trade is more important than anything else for these two rising countries. Read a most recent comment from India’s Foreign Secretary. "India isn't party to any kind of containment by the United States and China of the other, and it would be a painful exercise for both countries, Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran" India defense 8/29/2006.

Where is the logic in allowing a tiny country called Taiwan, to start a war between the two most import countries on the planet? Ideology will get us all killed. The future merging of Taiwan into China is inevitable anyway.

Isolated countries/regions are dangerous, interconnected ones (especially with Nukes) are not. At this moment in time, economic systems trump the political systems, and as long as they don’t become too out of sync everything will be cool. Demographics are destiny, and China and India have more. The future belongs to them, although we will still be a major player, just the not only one.

Remember, work together everyone wins, oppose each other, everyone loses.

Posted by: WarNerd at September 1, 2006 01:28 PM


Now, I'm no fan of dictatorships, which is clearly what we have in China, and was troubled already under Clinton when we decided to let the Chinese government get away with whatever it wanted to domestically, but I have to ask one thing: I've seen Kaltes talk in this thread about China "embark[ing] on further wars of aggression," and refering to China's "inherent aggressiveness." Would he care to give an example of a past war of aggression that they've embarked on, aside from their invasion of Tibet, and explain whether the second comment was anything more than some bizarre and rather ill-fitting essentialist description of how he sees their culture?
There are a lot of things wrong with China today, but a tendency to launch wars of aggression abroad has not generally been one of them (again, aside from Tibet.)

Posted by: Haninah at September 1, 2006 10:29 AM


I can't stand the fact that so many Americans are so ready to give up, and accept that fact that China will surpass us in the next few years.

Did someone promise you that a country of 1.3 billion people would always have a smaller economy -- and the global impact that goes with it -- than a country of 300 million? Did you get that in writi8ng?

China is using the west to help it's economy become self sustaining

Ummm... for better or worse, it was much more "self sustaining" in 1949-1980, when most of what little trade it did was within the Communict bloc.

During all those years, our prescription for them was: abandon your bogus Marxist economic theory, let your people work for their own well-being rather than Socialist People's Abstractions, come out of your paranoid shell and engage the world. Well, that's exactly what they've been doing lately. They took our advice, the prescription is working...

And it seems to really bug you.

Posted by: Monte Davis at September 1, 2006 09:35 AM


I can't stand the fact that so many Americans are so ready to give up, and accept that fact that China will surpass us in the next few years.

China is using the west to help it's economy become self sustaining. It's the equivelant of us feeding a dragon in order to keep our house warm, but if we keep allowing it to grow, it will eventually burn the house down.

China, wants to be number one, and I have no doubt they will do anything to get there.

Posted by: Will at September 1, 2006 09:06 AM


"It is time to dump Taiwan and BMD so we can lock in China as an ally now."

Yeah, let's side with communists over a democracy... good plan!

"China is not Communists, they are early stage Capitalists."

Don't confuse the with economic the political. Although ideologically pure communists will not pursue capitalist economic policy, China remains a repressive 1-party dictatorship, hell-bent on building up its military might despite no external threats. Red China has been the aggressor before and will again.

"If you think they are going to screw that up, you are crazy. They will be busy suckling the global utter for at least two decades."

Don't be so sure. China will become overtly aggressive as soon as its economic growth plateaus (inevitable) and it is not so completely dependent on US trade (pretty likely).

"We don’t need another Yalta like divide, with the Chinese and Indians on one side, and us and the Euros on the other;"

India won't side with China, and the EU might very well side with China over us, given circumstances.

"It is simple demographic numbers, they both have more."

Numbers mean very little.

"We can have another cold war, like us and the Soviets (containment strategy will fail), or we can have a long term global alliance like us and the British. The choice is ours."

First, containment historically succeeded. Second, the choice is NOT ours, it is China's choice. The US could either kiss up to China and let China walk all over us, like the Clinton administration, or the US can stand up to China and cut off China's inherent aggression while it is in its early stages. An alliance with China is no less naive than if you had proposed an alliance with Japan in the 1930s.

"I suggest all of you go to the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, and then tell me they are our enemy."

Im sure the same could have been said of the 1936 summer olympics hosted by Nazi Germany. Im sure the Nazis were very hospitable with their guests.

"Our reaction to a rising China is a similar one to the British watching the rise of the USA early in the 20th century."

It is inept to compare a militaristic communist dictatorship to a free, thriving democracy. The British were close allies of the US during that period, whereas by contrast China is hell-bent on the conquest of a US ally: Taiwan.

Posted by: Kaltes at September 1, 2006 06:13 AM


There goes Noah again with his epic battle for global resources conspiracy. We and China are joined at the hip whether we like it or not. We work together, everyone wins; we impose tariffs or start a great power war, the whole world loses. It really is that simple.

We need each other. It is time to dump Taiwan and BMD so we can lock in China as an ally now. We need their massive army to help us with “peacekeeping” and North Korea, and they need our technology, business knowledge, and entrepreneurship.

China is not Communists, they are early stage Capitalists. By the comments I have read, China is definitely more market friendly than the people here. All that China cares about is global FDI inflows, which required to fuel their export led growth. (The same way every other Asian country has). GDP = C + G + I + (X – M). They still have 500 million people looking for non-farm jobs. According to UNCTAD, in 2005 China was 3rd in FDI inflows behind the US and UK with $60 billion. If you think they are going to screw that up, you are crazy. They will be busy suckling the global utter for at least two decades.

It is time for the new generation of political leaders on both sides to gain power, because the cold warriors don’t understand the new interconnected world, and they could literally blow it up for all of us.

We don’t need another Yalta like divide, with the Chinese and Indians on one side, and us and the Euros on the other; because the current conventional thinking will get us to that unfortunate point. It is simple demographic numbers, they both have more. We can have another cold war, like us and the Soviets (containment strategy will fail), or we can have a long term global alliance like us and the British. The choice is ours.

For those of you who have read all my past comments know that have already declared nation state warfare dead, because it is, unless paranoid politicians, economic nationalists, or the military-industrial complex (excluding Boeing) gets involved. I believe that is everyone in the US government, except Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. I suggest all of you go to the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, and then tell me they are our enemy. Oh, let me guess, we boycott it like we did in the 1980 Moscow Olympics.

Our reaction to a rising China is a similar one to the British watching the rise of the USA early in the 20th century. Our hegemony is ending. We can cry about it, try to prevent it, or we can accept it.

Posted by: WarNerd at August 31, 2006 11:47 PM


China is what Iraq and the Middle East are all about. Whoever controls global oil reserves has the ability to throttle any economy (like the US oil embargo did to Japan in 1941).

For better or worse, we are up to our eyeballs in China (just like we are in Saudi Arabia), and any move that threatens the status quo will have disastrous global consequences. Officially, we keep screaming for them to let the yuan float, but if they did it would soar and the world economy would crash.

The idea of open war with China is unthinkable from either side, but that won't prevent our heroes from pursuing a strategy of indirect economic attrition, trying to force China into bankruptcy and collapse (a la the former Soviet union) in an arms race.

The problem is that we will go bankrupt long before the Chinese. Not only do they have the benefit of >$120 billion annual trade surplus with the US (quadrupled since 2001), they are too smart to get embroiled in such a stupid exercise.

The Chinese are also more than clever enough to reverse the attrition strategy on us, and will build enough military capability to keep us busy pumping hundreds of billions into wasteful (but highly profitable for a few) military expenditures while they further develop their already steamrolling economy.

Posted by: Noah (the other one) at August 31, 2006 08:37 PM


Yeah, I think the people poo-poohing the threat from China are being very short-sighted. I feel better about our military knowing they are ensuring that they are prepared when China finally decides to embark on further wars of aggression.

The US military is already fighting the war on terror, and will continue to do so. The terrorists, as bad as they are, are nowhere near the kind of threat posed by a major nation-state like China.

Posted by: Kaltes at August 31, 2006 07:56 PM


The problem with the thinking here is that few people are capable of looking past the immediate thorn in the side of Iraq, and the middle east (which, for all the problems we have there, in the grand long term centenial scheme of things, it is not as big an issue as the continued arms buildup of China.) You can laugh at those who prepare today for China tomorrow, but when the time comes, 15-20 years from now when China is capable of war with the United States toe-to-toe, you'll be taking it back. Oh, and if you don't believe this to be the case, then there's no further explaination necessary - that's just plain ignorance. To quote another editorial on here, war is a "come-as-you-are" affair. If you're building up your military for the threats of today, without planning for tomorrow, then you've already lost. The hot and cold wars of the future 15-25 years from now, will most certainly revolve around China, and its proxies. Terrorisim and Iraq are a moot point next to China once they become a superpower on par with the United States, and the late Soviet Union.

Posted by: Skyler at August 31, 2006 06:44 PM


Well, at least this will help ensure that the big budget programs (F-22, F-35, F/A-18, etc) all receive proper funding. Without a big, nasty, some-what equal enemy, some of those programs would go bye-bye faster. Although I do have my doubts about the DDX program, yikes.

Posted by: Steve at August 31, 2006 06:01 PM


Very nice. I needed that chart. Here's a CRS report on US vs China... http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33607.pdf

Posted by: J. at August 31, 2006 05:19 PM


Good Afternoon Folks,

I've away for a acouple of days. On the news this afternoon I heard Sec. of Def. Rumsfeld say we are at war with "Islamic Facists" now. What happened, did we win the "Global War On Terrorism"?

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

Posted by: Byron Skinner at August 31, 2006 04:49 PM


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