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Edited by Christian Lowe | Contact

China Sat-Killer Not Yet Weapons Grade?

Last week, I described China's satellite strike as "next-gen," and America's ability to fend off such an attack however somewhere around zero. After all, there's never been a direct ground-to-space satellite smack; and the Air Force itself says such defenses are improbable, at best.

china_space_face.jpgBut veteran space analyst Jim Oberg says the anti-satellite test was a little easier than it looked. And there may be some defenses, after all. Because there's a big difference between a "satellite-killing demonstration and the needs of a real weapon — one that would be a genuine threat to other countries' satellites," he notes.

Now it's important to keep in mind that the Chinese carefully timed the launch of their kinetic kill vehicle so that it would intercept the known position and orbit of the satellite it was aiming for—intercepting a target in an arbitrary orbit is a much more difficult proposition...

The missile's kill mechanism is that of a bullet: It crashes head-on into a target moving at 28 000 km/hr, adding its own speed to the total impact velocity...

The Chinese targeted a low-orbiting, obsolete, weather satellite, where the kinetic kill energy was very great. However, the really strategic satellites fly much higher — the [GPS] navigation network is 20 000 km up... [T]he orbital velocities [there] are so much lower that the impact energy would be only about a tenth as high as in last week's test.

Distance introduces a second burden: terminal navigation. When a target satellite is close to the Earth, ground radars can track it and relay final course corrections, both to the rocket during its ascent and to the kill vehicle, once it has been deployed on its hoped-for collision course. Radar operates at an inverse fourth power law, which means that for the Chinese system to aim many times farther than low Earth orbit—as it would have to do to track objects geosynchronously—the demands on a ground-based radar would be simply impossible...

Nor are space targets helpless victims to such kinetic kill attacks, especially at higher altitudes... [A] target satellite can take steps to interfere with the attacker obtaining a workable targeting solution, and the farther from Earth the attack occurs, the more the odds favor the target.

Objects can hide in space, to a greater or lesser degree, by lowering their radar reflectivity or optical brightness along the attacker's expected line of approach. This makes terminal navigation and guidance more difficult. That effect can be augmented with decoys, which can either be deployed when an attack is detected or can be sent, as a matter of routine, to fly in formation with the high-value target. A decoy doesn't have to be a throwaway subsatellite, it could be an inflatable spar a few tens of meters long with a pseudo-target at the end to attract the on-rushing kinetic kill vehicle away from the real spacecraft. Such a decoy could be deployed in a matter of minutes, and even re-stowed afterwards for future re-use.

Even the simple suspicion that a target may have such a capability would discourage a potential attacker. And the realization that a target might also be able to detect and characterize even a failed attack would be an additional deterrent. There would be no way for the attacking country to get away with attempted mayhem.

ALSO:
* China Tests Satellite Killer?
* China Space Attack: Unstoppable
* Beijing's Next-Gen Sat Strike
* Satellite Killer's Big Impact
* Why Did China Smack the Sat?
* Who Ordered the Satellite Strike?

(Big ups: Stefan Landsberger, for his awesome collection of Chinese propaganda posters)

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The issue at stake here is not the actual feasibility of the technological ability being demonstrated. The issue at stake is this nation's will to showcase a military capability in tense times, with a calculated eye toward propping up its image on the world stage.

Ignoring the blabber about jealousy and hypocrisy, the fact of the matter remains that China is rapidly ascending in the areas that truly matter in the world. Financial, military, and geopolitical status expanding for a regime, culture, and people that care little or nothing about anyone or anywhere else.

Building the Three Gorges Dam caused the displacement of hundreds of thousands of villagers, destruction of hundreds of square miles of unique habitat, and obliteration of archeological wealth of incomparable value. Yet the Chinese government didn't bat an eye, and this was in their own country!

Their contribution to worldwide pollution thanks to decades-old manufacturing technologies and practices is exploding. Their theft of intellectual property and trampling of copyright protections absolutely dwarfs whatever swindles the Nazis scraped together.

How many learning institutions are offering courses in Mandarin? It's not from jealousy that I speak, but from a historical perspective seasoned with liberal doses of real-world examples and an unblinking view of human nature.

I could care less about hitting an aging satellite in a predictable orbit launched by the same nation that fired the interceptor. That's a minor war-fighting capability that's easily countered.

What I care about is a nation of brutal, egomaniacal butchers suffering from a combination of delusions of grandeur and a raging superiority complex.

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"However, the really strategic satellites fly much higher — the [GPS] navigation network is 20 000 km up..."

Yes, but ISR satellites generally fly in LEO, and those are what folks are really scared of losing.

Posted by: Haninah at January 22, 2007 04:45 PM


Also, didn't china deliberately change the sattelite's orbit to make it easier to hit and so that it would pass right over relativel to the launch pad?

It sounded more rigged than an SDI test to me.

Posted by: Nicholas Weaver at January 22, 2007 02:42 PM


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