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Edited by Christian Lowe | Contact

Oil Free by 2050

Hornet-over-oil-wells.jpg

The US military needs oil -- about 300,000 barrels a day -- to fight.

Lots of oil comes from the same places where the military actually is fighting today, or may be fighting sometime in the not so distant future. (Hello, Iran?)

Oh, the irony!

It should come as no surprise then that the Department of Defense is giving very serious thought to oil independence. The notion is that the nation -- and particularly the military -- must have assured access to energy, and oil isn't such a safe bet any more.

Champions of this concept are known to include John Young, DOD's director for Defense Research and Engineering; and Ron Sega, undersecretary of the Air Force and -- on Capitol Hill -- New York Republican Representative Steve Israel and Maryland Republican Representative Roscoe Bartlett.

There's been some press about a highly-touted Air Force experiment using a synthentic base fuel (derived from natural gas pumped in from Oklahoma) to power one of the B-52's eight engines.

But that's just kid-stuff, really.

It's very clear that a much broader vision exists within DOD to really go ... all .. the ... way, and fast.

The vision can be found in this master's thesis by Air Force Lt Col Michael J. Hornitschek, who originally published the document for the Air University's Center for Strategy and Technology. It has since been republished in the Air Force Journal of Logistics. It's a thesis, but it often reads like a very good Popular Science article.

Here's a quick excerpt that explains the vision:

"A directed-energy based, highly-automated force, capable of generating a majority of its own power in a distributed fashion from local and environmental sources, could theoretically provide that future. The potential efficiency, environmental ubiquity, universality and convertibility from one form to another of this configuration, make strong arguments that the force of 2050 can be powered almost exclusively by electricity and hydrogen.

"Setting aside conventional paradigms allows one to imagine a conceptual 2050 force. All navy ships might employ nuclear-powered direct-electric drives, lightweight nanoengineered hulls, and directed energy armament. All army and marine corps future combat system land vehicles (many of which are unmanned) are designed for modular upgrades with plug-in electric hybrid or fuel-cell power, lightweight carbon nanotube-based armor and directed energy weaponry. Today's vulnerable tanker fuel trucks are replaced with smaller hybrid or fuel-cell powered trucks carrying stable, solid hydrate-based hydrogen batteries or combat safety-engineered liquid hydrogen containers. Individual soldiers are outfitted with pocket hydrogen fuel cells to power 10-15 onboard electric systems. Virtually all combat fighter aircraft are small, unmanned or single-seat, and powered by liquid or even nano-engineered solid hydrogen-based fuels. Ultra-efficient aircraft designs eliminate the need for tanker aircraft. All imagery (sic), surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms are either space-based or unmanned vehicles, orbiting for weeks at a time exclusively on solar-generated power while peering through weather from above."

-- Stephen Trimble

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The Truth About Crude Oil

First Crude Oil is NOT from Dino the Dinosaur or his brothers. Logically speaking if the earth was covered with a dense primeval forest and there was a Dinosaur living in every five square mile area on the face of the earth, and all this was compressed into a sub surface space for tens of thousands of years, and produced a pool of Crude Oil, it WOULD ONLY FEED the needs of this world for the PAST twenty years, so WHAT FUELED the Industrial Age for the first EIGHTY YEARS???????????????????????????

Think about what is stated above! Science states that oil is the by product of the earths ENGINE as it rotates creating GRAVITY and super heating rock formations, that through this process release oil and this oil flows into cavities within the earth.

Now with this said, what is the reason for the excessive spike in Crude and Natural Gas prices? GREED.
In the 60’s gas sold for 35 cents a gallon, cars got 5 to 7 MPG so a 100 mile trip would take some 16 gallons at a cost of 5 dollars. Today cars get 30 miles to a gallon and that same trip would only take 3 gallons of gas at a cost of 12 dollars. Take into account the LOSS OF VALUE of the FRN and you will see that BIG OIL is KEEPING ITS bottom line HIGH as the efficiency of the engines increase.

There was a contrived oil crisis in the 70’s and there is one today. Why? It is the GREED of BIG OIL! It takes less than 20 dollars to get oil out of the ground and refined into its product and delivered. It takes from 6 months to a year for a well from the day the drill head starts the hole until it produce oil. The Russians can do it in three mounts. Today’s wells exceed 6000 barrels a day, and one off shore platform can have over 20 SLANT WELL HEADS producing oil 24 hours a day.

The United States of America is sitting on the worlds largest coal reserves; it also has more crude oil than the Middle East. Recent finds in Montana exceed what is found in Saudi Arabia, and Pennsylvania has over 3 trillion cubic feet of Natural Gas yet to be pumped into the system. Alaska has extensive reserves yet CONGRESS has for years REFUSED to allow the release of this oil, because of RED TAPE and that they are under the control of ENVIRONMENTALIST groups. These groups want all Americans to ride bikes and live as the settlers did in the 1800. Congress continues to LIE regarding the time it takes to drill a well and get the oil into the system. They state that it would be ten years before wells drilled today could produce oil. This is a BOLD FACE LIE. Congress has prohibited drilling for the past two decades, if what they say is true and if they allowed drilling decades ago we would NOT HAVE FOUR DOLLAR A GALLON GAS PRICES, and HOME HEATING OIL WOULD NOT BE OVER FOUR DOLLARS A GALLON, THAT WILL CAUSE A HEATING CRISIS THIS WINTER, and SOME AMERICAN MAY FREEZE TO DEATH FOR LACK OF HEAT. CONGRESS IS TO BLAME IF THIS OCCURS.

Today’s advances in drilling insure a protected environment. The WILD CAT wells of the early 1900 are a thing of the past.

Environmentalist claim that the exhaust of power plants create TONS of CO2, HOWEVER, CO2 is a GAS and is measured in cubic feet NOT TONS. The advance scrubbing of the exhausts prevent most hydrocarbons from being suspended in the atmosphere. Most ALL the reasons given by environmentalist are not science, but an agenda to deprive Americans of their standard of living.


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You Will Be Amazed, and make sure you click on the link GLOBAL WARMING and read what the ENVIRONMENTALIST do not want you to know about NON GLOBAL WARMING BY MAN.

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Would it be better to not have a military by 2050? That's a great idea!!! You go first. Disband your military. Then I'll disband mine. Trust me.

Posted by: Brian at March 2, 2007 01:39 PM


Perhaps the develpment and deployment of fusion based technologies, or technologies that access energy directly from the active vacuum will become a reality.

Posted by: - at March 2, 2007 03:35 AM


It's Roscoe, not Dan. My (embarassing) bad.

Posted by: Stephen Trimble at March 1, 2007 10:46 AM


...by the way, would that be Roscoe Bartlett from Maryland, the congressman/physicist (and EMP monomaniac)? 'Cause Dan Bartlett, we don't know who is, nuless it's the guy who used to work in the White House.


Posted by: AirSix at March 1, 2007 09:55 AM


Wouldn't it be better to work toward not to have have a Military instead of this ? Should be able to do that before 2050 ?

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Military sector will be the last consumer of fuel-hydrocarbons. The ignition engine will be longer valid in military sector because of power capacity of this engine. (In civilian sector - the electric engine will be the central drving system.) The ignition engine will be deeply modified to be able to use oil, alcohol, consuming oil - a various kinds of fuel.
All heavy machines (also in industry). Number of units (machines) will decrease.

Forget about high power electricity used to war. Easy flowing electricity is dedicated to civilian sector. Military will consuming the batteries - mainly for ccc infrastructure and the rest as is now. Making all military systems more energy consumable is wrong direction.

The fact is that changes in energy flows will have very deep impact on modern world - creating political changes. The fact is that in lack-of-energy (fuel)-circumstances, the wars will be MORE possible in regions without stabilisation guaranteed by nuclear umbrella. Profile of war will change. It will be rather deep ethno-social conflitcs.

The number of civilians will grow, mumber of military will decline, and number of miliatary measures will decline. More important will be ability for common defence then ability to attack

(a lot of current trends will be lost)

The role of army will change. It will be merge between the army and the police force - law enforce.

The world will be generally less mobile.

Compare energy consumption by hitech (postindustrial society), and industrial society. Postindustrial society is consuming much MORE energy then industrial (and preindustrial).

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Posted by: Slawomir at February 28, 2007 07:23 PM


Notice this "Today's vulnerable tanker fuel trucks are replaced with smaller hybrid or fuel-cell powered trucks carrying stable, solid hydrate-based hydrogen batteries or combat safety-engineered liquid hydrogen containers. "

Uhm, the fuel cells look okay, but im not sure about liquid hydrogen tankers. Isnt that high-pressure stuff and very volatile, even worse then ordinary fuel? (eg: virtualy a big red sign that says 'machine-gun this')

Nice idea anyway, but 2050? It's official science-fiction :)

Posted by: Macaca at February 28, 2007 06:13 PM


By energy weapons, keep in mind this could include rail guns, etc, which could still be fired "over the horizon" and yet rely only on electricity for propulsion.

Also, most "over the horizon" engagements are handled by aircraft or missiles these days, so weapons systems on ships which fire conventional projectiles are mostly defensive and don't need over the horizon capability. The age of direct bombardment by big guns is long over.

Posted by: Erick Smith at February 28, 2007 05:20 PM


This "vision" sounds an awful lot like wishful thinking. Why didn't he just give the Marines Starship Troopers-style battle suits and personal nuke launchers to as well?

Plus a lot of it doesn't make sense. Directed-energy armament on Navy ships? What, they aren't going to be attacking anything over the horizon any more?

Posted by: moonbiter at February 28, 2007 04:14 PM


It is all very well to wish for a non-dependency on oil by 2050, but lets face it, we probably will be just as dependent on oil then as we are now. One of the options we have is batteries, but to develop better ones will take a long time. Li-on batteries are only 3-4 times more powerful than they were 20 years ago, and if you want to power a tank, even if you have lightweight nano-materials for armour, you will need something a lot better. Fuel cells are another choice, but where will you get the hydrogen based fuel for them? Electrolysis, then your back on oil-dependency. Ethanol production from crops and you will see food prices go up outrageously, coz of the amount needed to support the US military alone. Nuclear power is all well for the big stuff, but even then, you make enough big ships with such a powerplant and you are bound to have a few errors, and with nuclear tech, you do NOT want errors.
It will take something directly out of star trek to draw the dependency away from oil to support an establishment as big the US military.

Posted by: Andres at February 28, 2007 03:08 PM


For JB:

the (sic) could be necessary because the "I" of ISR most often stands for intelligence, not imagery.

cheers,
Mark S.

Posted by: Mark S. at February 28, 2007 02:30 PM


What's with "imagery (sic)" in the quote above? I have trouble taking a military blog seriously if they're unfamiliar with that word ...

Posted by: JB at February 28, 2007 01:53 PM


In the comment below, by "author" I meant Hornitschek, not myself.

Posted by: Stephen Trimble at February 28, 2007 01:40 PM


Forty years isn't so long a time in the weapons business. It means you're talking about the next generation of ships, tanks and planes that start appearing after 2020. As the author notes, those electric and hydrogen power are being factored into the plans for many of those designs. It may seem far-fetched today to conceive of an oil-free fleet, but it can happen. Consider when Winston Churchill, as head of the Royal Navy, switched British warships from coal to oil in World War I. That may seem quaint today, but it really was a change of comparable magnitude.

Posted by: Stephen Trimble at February 28, 2007 01:39 PM


I hope I'm wrong, but doesn't this sound a lot like the army's hope to have armour for the M1A2 that was lighter but as tough so fuel wouldn't be such an issue?

Mostly hoping on technology that hasn't been developed or released yet. Ah well, 40 years is a long way away anyways.

Posted by: Foreign.Boy at February 28, 2007 09:34 AM


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