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Edited by Christian Lowe | Contact

Air Force Bomber Redux...

A-12-Avenger-web.jpg

The next bomber in the US Air Force inventory should be stealthy and subsonic. It should travel 2,000-nautical miles to its target and have enough fuel on board to get home. It should carry at least 28 500-pound bombs. And (surprise!) there should be a human pilot on board.

These are the conclusions of the Air Force's recently completed analysis of alternatives for a next-generation bomber to be fielded around 2018.

This is supposed to be a new thing, of course, but those specifications seem strangely familiar.

Anyone remember the A-12 Avenger II? It, too, was a stealthy, subsonic, manned aircraft that blurred the boundary between an attack aircraft and a bomber.

Dick Cheney cancelled the A-12 program on 7 January 1991, just as the bombs started to fall on Baghdad during Operation Desert Storm.

True, the A-12 was conceived as a carrier-based land attack aircraft, but it wasn't entirely a Navy bird. According to our dog-eared copy of Jane's All the World's Aircraft 1991-92, a "USAF A-12" had been proposed as a replacement for the F-111.

The F-111 was designed to carry 24 500-pound bombs and travel 1,800 miles, and it's not unfair to think the proposed USAF variant of the super-secret A-12 would have been very similar in capability.

So, congratulations, taxpayers: Watch the Air Force spend billions of dollars over the next decade for an aircraft that General Dynamics and McDonnell Douglas very nearly delivered to the navy and the air force 15 years ago.

Christian adds:

The Washington Post reported today the law suit between the government, General Dynamics and Boeing Co. that festered for years over the cancellation of the A-12 program has been adjudicated in favor of the government’s position.

The U.S. Court of Federal Claims upheld the government's 1991 decision to terminate the companies' contract for the A-12 radar-evading plane, General Dynamics and Boeing said.

The "contracting officer could have concluded that McDonnell Douglas and General Dynamics had 'no reasonable likelihood' of delivering the aircraft on time as measured by the schedule," Judge Robert H. Hodges wrote in the decision. McDonnell Douglas merged with Boeing in 1997. "We must again uphold the Government's default termination…"

…The debate dates to the eve of the Persian Gulf War in January 1991 when Dick Cheney, who was defense secretary, canceled the program, which was over budget and behind schedule. The Pentagon demanded return of the $1.3 billion it had invested in the plane, and General Dynamics sued, arguing that the real reason for the cancellation was that the Pentagon needed money for the war. No A-12s were ever built.

The case has been in the courts for years and became a symbol for the difficulty of canceling a weapons program. In 2002, the Navy told General Dynamics and Boeing to pay $2.3 billion to settle the case, which the companies refused to do. That demand included $1 billion in interest.

-- Stephen Trimble

Comments

nice to meet you

Posted by: wowpowerleveling at April 15, 2008 02:08 AM


The A-12 was cancelled, in a nutshell, because the technology required to make it work was too much of a stretch to achieve on a cost effective basis in 1991. The notion that the same thing might be less challenging technologically sixteen years later, after a period of revolutionary advances in the science and implementation of aircraft with new materials, advanced avionics, aerodynamic innovations, and stealth technology, is hardly a stretch.

In other words, it is entirely possible that Cheney, that bastard that he is, may have made the right decision for 1991, and that somebody else may be making the right decision in basically reinventing the A-12 now.

The technology has arrived, although I seriously doubt that the mission that its successor is designed to carry out (medium range, medium weight bombing runs) really ought to be a priority for the Air Force. The Air Force has the F-15E, F-16, F-35A, F-117, and A-10 for short range bombing missions. It has the B-52, B-1 and B-2 for long range bombing missions.

It isn't as if the long range bomber fleet is so overtaxed that it can't handle a medium range, medium payload run from time to time. There is slack in the system to allow the big guys to run those kinds of missions.

For my druthers, I'd rather see a B-52 successor, perhaps modeled on a Boeing 747 or 737, than a successor to the F-111 and the A-12. If the medim range bombing mission were so vital, we wouldn't have retired the F-111 long before any replacement was in place.

Posted by: ohwilleke at September 9, 2007 04:08 AM


Brian H - you know what countries I'm talking about...Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, syria, etc...basically a bunch of middle eastern countries.

Posted by: murc at May 6, 2007 10:57 PM


Subsonic only sounds good to the bean-counters cause it costs less money. But I bet anyone that the Air Force would love supersonic. That whole talk about prompt global strike can't be just a lot of hot air.

Posted by: JH at May 6, 2007 02:43 PM


murc;
I'm very concerned about these "rouge" nations. Are they the ones that go red when we're not looking? Or the ones that give us roguish looks?

Just confused, and blushing.

Posted by: Brian H at May 6, 2007 12:21 PM


When is the airforce going to realise that manned bombers are not the way to go if you are looking for endurance? If they don't then Israel (http://www.janes.com/press/articles/pc060307_1.shtml) or worse France will have the capability sooner. Countries with smaller defense budgets could attain an edge in this area because of smarter investment choices.

Posted by: africanmuffia at May 6, 2007 12:00 PM


I like the YF-23 for a lot of reasons, but payload and range divided by payload aren't two of them. Speed does not always equal survivability: these days very often Go Fast = Die Sooner.
Counterintuitively perhaps, but also the truth is Mach 1-2 'speed' buys you only a fractional edge in time-to-target that can be overcome through proper planning or by tasking less numerous specialized systems for the small aimpoint sets that REALLY need servicing 'yesterday'. Alas, this small speed advantage is paid for with GREAT penalties in payload, range (obvious basic aerodynamics), and tanker support (less obvious perhaps?)...which no doubt is why the findings of the AF analysis came out with a high subsonic answer.

I question the 'range' outcome of the analysis. There seems to be a smidgen of unwarranted optimism as to secure forward basing opportunities.

Posted by: SMSgt Mac at May 5, 2007 12:51 AM


A stretched YF-23, with a lowered need for high speed, would be an exceptionally easy answer to this need. For that matter, an expanded, manned version of one of the A-12 derivatives now being built as UAVs, would be another - if ironic - possibility.

The conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have pointed out one error of the "go-fast" gang: No matter how many F-22s, F-35s and B-2s you buy, you will still always have a requirement for a less-flashy, durable and dependable "bomb truck" to put a concentrated mass of iron on some tactical targets.

Any "stealthy" Canberras waiting in the wings?

Posted by: Paul Zimmerli at May 4, 2007 09:50 PM


The USAF keeps searching for the holy grail of bombers, a bomber with long range, big pay-load, low radar cross-section, capable of being used as a fighter and it won't ever happen.

I predict that within 10-20 years that airborne lasers (on both sides) will create such a hostile air environment that manned aircraft will have a short lifetime in the combat arena and that small, stealthy, fast RPV will dominate the airspace.

Posted by: Perplexed at May 4, 2007 09:47 PM


What a waste of money.

We dont need some bomber to scare China...(which is what the B-2 did to Russia)...cause we wont ever do a full on assualt on china...and if that actually does happen...a slow bomber isn't what would be used.

A interium bomber like the YF-23 makes more sense...since it would be much cheaper...and be able to go around mach 2. Which would make more sense...whether your going after terrorists or rouge nations.

11 years down the road...and they want a bomber thats slow and stealthy....????

It seems the AF doesn't want anything new.
What happened to the PDE engine...that thing showed massive amounts of potential....there no way they would abandon that tech.
If they would make a YF-23 type of bomber...except ditch the jet engine, and go with PDE...they could have a high mach number aircraft...at least mach 5.

Posted by: murc at May 4, 2007 06:33 PM


apologies for the fat fingering typos

Posted by: SMSgt Mac at May 4, 2007 01:40 PM


1. LRS
The parameters tell me more about their planning assumptions tan anything else. And thus I consider this a Medium Range Strike concept.

2. A-12
Check out RAND’s “The Cutting Edge: A Half Century of Fighter Aircraft R&D”
They still have the report available online (I highly recommend anyone interested in this stuff to read it all.
For this thread Chapter 6: (http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR939/MR939.ch6.pdf) is especially important, beginning at Page 146.

There you will see a pretty good basis for the A-12 contractor’s claim that the government did not provide them with essential information, and especially note that while the Northrop bid on the contract was considered way too high in the proposal phase, in the post-mortem analysis, Northrop’s bid was more realistic.

Posted by: SMSgt Mac at May 4, 2007 01:39 PM


Isn't the B2 a stealthy, subsonic bomber? I thought something like, amuse me for a moment, a Y-Wing that can go into hyperspace, come out of hyperspace to drop its payload and then back into it. What I mean by that is something that's extremely fast and can slow down enough to drop the payload.

But I'd like to add I'm not an expert on such matters and probably think you lot have guffawed your coffee down your fronts at such a notion.

Posted by: Sunshine Goodness at May 4, 2007 01:24 PM


I hate to say it but unless we can find something novel, and useful that we don't have in bombers we have out now I don't see any reason to design new ones. If we want more bombers great, just buy more of the ones we already have. Hell if we are talking about close air support being a reason how about some more a-10s (With the new updates they are good for so much more than they used to be), if you just want to bomb the crap out of something from airbases thosands of miles away how about B-52s, Cruse missles, B-2s or F-111s for that matter. Can't we think of anything that would be better servered with a complete redesign more than all the bombers we have to choose from?

It seems to be more than anything else the US military needs to figure out how to shrink it's supply chain. We need to use less fuel, require less equipment, and truck less water. How many people have died in Iraq just because of our requirement to truck water and fuel all over the place?

Posted by: The Cenobyte at May 4, 2007 09:37 AM


Yes, I may have exaggerated a tad on the "nearly delivered point".

The air force's next-generation long range strike is not new, but a very delayed replacement for the F-111's range and weapons load and the A-12's stealth, is my point.

That admittedly didn't come through in my little write-up.

Posted by: Stephen Trimble at May 4, 2007 09:32 AM


What's the old story they tell in the airforce? When the last of the B-1's and B-2's are flown into the desert to be put into moth balls or scraped. The crews will be picked up for the flight back home by a B-52! Now you can add this new mythical bomber to the list!

What we really need is a new ruggered short take off [I dont trust vertical take off planes f-35 harrier]attack aircraft. That is what the army ground pounders need and want and the marines swear by. The A-10 can not last for ever and the marines would like to have their own version that can operate from small carriers. A modern jet powered version of the old WW2 flying pancake.

High angle of take off and landing, low speed take off and landing. It's very shape gives it a low radar profile. also leaves vast internal area for weapons and fuel. Give it the same gun the A-10 has and you have a ground suport aircraft that can be used on small support carriers because there will be no need for catapults and aresting gear. It can take off from roads, grass field and dirt roads.

Posted by: davids at May 4, 2007 09:29 AM


I concur with DavidR. I worked on that program from '88 to '90, and I can say with certainty that we were nowhere near delivering anything when Cheney pulled the plug.

Posted by: Chris of Dangerous Logic at May 4, 2007 09:06 AM


Very nearly delivered?

The contractors were far behind schedule, far over weight, and far over budget when the contract was canceled. "Very nearly delivered" makes it sound like everything was just fine until the mean ol' gub'mint decided to cancel the program just to waste the money.

Posted by: DavidR at May 4, 2007 08:50 AM


No, the next bomber the Air Force uses should focus on:
-robustness, being able to be deployed to smaller bases without expensive maintenance or those B-2 pods
-loitering, with ground to air comm getting better and quicker it's more important to have air support on site than flying around the world
-comm, being able to effectively communicate with ground forces is key. Sacrifice a couple bombs for better communications
-moderate stealth, being stealthy is already covered with B-2s, cruise missiles, and stand-off bombs.

Posted by: Hoax Meister at May 4, 2007 08:20 AM


sorry for the typos...

justify, carrying, annihilate ... embarassing

Posted by: Sven Ortmann at May 4, 2007 07:50 AM


Why so many bombs? Just imagine - a minimum of 100 aircraft needs to be built to really justif a development program. 100 aircraft caarrying each 28 precision strike SDB's ... that's enough to annilihalte the industrial capacity of a country like Ukraine with one sortie of each bomber ...

If strikes were limited to electricity-related industries (powerplants), two bombers were enough to shut down the industry of a country like Ukraine.

(I used the Ukraine to have a decent-sized, developed country as example).

The bombload requirement is exaggerated imho.

The endurance was the more relevant variable in the past years and there are still some B-2's to do jobs like "hit 300 targets within 2 hours while endangering less than 20 soldiers".

Posted by: Sven Ortmann at May 4, 2007 07:19 AM


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