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Edited by Christian Lowe | Contact

Russia's New BMD-Beater

Topol-M-web.jpg

Russia recently launched a new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capable of carrying Multiple Independently targeted Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) warheads, ostensibly intended to penetrate the U.S. ballistic missile defense system. The improved Topol-M missile launched on 29 May was fired from a mobile launcher at the Plesetsk launch site in northwestern Russia. Its test warhead was reported to have landed on target about 3,400 miles down range on the Far Eastern Kamchatka Peninsula.

The TOPOL-M - given the Soviet designation RS-24 and the NATO designation SS-27 - also has a submarine-launched variant known as the Bulava (NATO SS-N-30).The naval missile will be carried by the new submarines of the Borey class. Statements from Russian officials indicate that the Topol-M and Bulava are being upgraded with new warheads and other countermeasures (probably decoys) to counter the U.S. ballistic missile defense system now being deployed. If these missiles are specifically intended to overcome U.S. defenses, their warheads can be expected to have maneuvering re-entry vehicles, called MaRVs in the strategic lexicon.

MaRV warheads were developed by the United States during the Cold War in response to Soviet ballistic missile defenses, but were never installed on ICBMs.

The original land-based Topol-M missile was deployed in small numbers, probably because of technical problems and large cost overruns. The first Topol-Ms were placed in service in 1997. The land-based Topol-M now appears to be in production to replace obsolete (and questionably reliable) fixed-silo ICBMs left over from mid-Cold War era and eventually the SS-25, the Soviet-era’s first generation land-mobile ICBM.

MaRV-web.jpg

Similarly, the submarine-launched Bulava is apparently planned to replace the outdated missiles in the Soviet-era Delta IV class that remain in Russian service. The Topol was adopted for submarine use following cancellation of a new missile, the SS-NX-28, that apparently suffered massive technical problems.

President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that Russia would continue to improve its nuclear weapons systems and respond to U.S. plans to deploy a missile defense system in Europe. Following the ICBM test on 29 May, Russian news agencies reported First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov saying that the ICBM, as well as a tactical cruise missile that also was tested that day, can penetrate any missile defense system.

"As of today, Russia has new [missiles] that are capable of overcoming any existing or future missile defense systems," ITAR-Tass quoted Ivanov. "So in terms of defense and security, Russian can look calmly to the country's future."

Ivanov is a former defense minister seen as a potential candidate to succeed Putin in next year’s national elections.

-- Norman Polmar

Comments

I do not agree that Russia has used photoshop to project the MIRVed missile RS-24. Americans are fed on so much propaganda by their news media and administration that they just can't imagine someone else can have capabilities matching theirs. After all one must remember Russia sent a man to space before the U.S. did. Perhaps Russia is the only other nation in the world that has some of the comparable technology to U.S. It's no credit to U.S. that Russian Scientists are working in U.S.Universities while their own are busy creating conditions for an Arms race.

Posted by: K.A.Sharma at August 17, 2007 02:14 AM


Strategic weapon activity in Russia and China should continue to press upon the US the need for modernized strategic forces of its own. Instead we have articles about Trident replacemnt in 2029 and Minuteman III to 2040.

The US needs new systems with the most modern technology available.

Posted by: bobbymike34 at June 11, 2007 02:18 PM


Good Morning Folks,

Since this post was put up and the Russians nuclear abilities have been put into serious question Mr. Putin has changed the game. The Russians are now offering the U.S. the co use of a radar facility in Azerbaijan. Lets us assume that mr. Putins offer is not for the Qabala unit a 50MW unit built during the CW in 1978, one of nine such the old U.S.S.R. set up in the weining days of its existence.

Assumingly the facitity being offered ids the massive 350MW radar located in Gabalinskaya in the norther part of the country. This unit was put up at then very end of the CW in 1991 first operational in 92.

This facility is an enviromental desaster. It has never operated at more the 300MW because it fries everything in its way, and is seldom use even at that. Besides being the worlds largest "microwave oven" it consumes 300/400 Cu. Meters of water per hour to cool, which is just dumped into a local stream and is dumping lose freon into the enviroment at 500/600 times normal. Freron has contaimated drinking water for a radius of 65 Kn. in the area.

Here's the catch Russia is stuck with a least of US$7 Million per year through 2012 on this large barbaque and is trying to unload it. Since it points south the facility even at a greatly reduced operating levels is of little use to the United Stats BMD plans for Europe and Azerbaijan has hinted it's not likely to renew the Russian lease and would like to see the 1500 Russians who are needed to man, secure and maintain Gabe. to go home.

Here is a chance for President Bush to score some big time points with the Europeans and the Azerbaijanians, we are looking for future basing rights in this area, and buy out the lease, take over responsibility for the facility, send 1500 Russians home and dismantle the whole thing.

Wow, think of the polition credits that the U.S. would get. The cost to do this, I would guess abou US$200 Million. Pocket change.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

Posted by: Byron Skinner at June 9, 2007 01:28 PM


The numbers I cited from the Swedish study should've read 7,000 to 2,000. Personally, I'd guess the actual total is probably lower than the floor they cited.

Posted by: lucabrazi at June 8, 2007 12:37 PM


They tested two systems. One was the ICBM, the other was a hybrid of some sort-- a cruise missile launched using the launcher and support equipment of an Iskander ballistic missile.

Granted they aren't the Soviets but they are: designing, testing and deploying stuff at a steady clip; increasing their investment in defense by double digits; selling lots of miltech to the PRC; and they still have a nuke complex sized to service a Cold War era force (according to one 2005 Swedish Defence Research Agency report they remain capable of producing 10,000 to 2,000 warheads per year). Just because the glass is half empty by Soviet-era standards, doesn't mean things won't get messy if it gets tipped over. None of this is cause for hysteria, but it also isn't an excuse to exercise our anti-BMD reflexes either.

Posted by: lucabrazi at June 8, 2007 02:15 AM


Byron,

Wouldn't VLADGRAD be more apropo?

Posted by: Grandjester at June 7, 2007 12:57 PM


Good Morning Folks,

This story is getting funnier by the day. Over on another sie I saw that the Russians are saying oops, last week test was NOT an RS-25 ICBM but an Iskander-M (SS-26 Stone) or an R-500 the Russians were not real clear, both short range missiles, but they did say that the test showed a one meter accuracy for what ever was tested and offered photo evidence, sure like no one has heard of "Photoshop".

To Mr. Putin, you are not "Peter the Great" and when you die they won't name/rename a city St. Putinburg.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

Posted by: Byron Skinner at June 7, 2007 12:45 PM


Skyler is dead on. To suggest that this is a "response" to the BMD is pure propaganda by the anti-BMD crowd. This missile has been in development for many, many years.

If we didn't have a BMD program and the Russians rolled this missile out, the Bush-haters would be shrieking that he's leaving us dangerously unprotected blah blah blah.

Posted by: John at June 7, 2007 12:12 PM


Some corrections:

1. The Topol-M/ SS-27 is not designated RS-24. That's the designation of this "new" MIRV missile (that appears, from the photographs of the launch, to be based on the Topol-M). The designation for Topol-M/ SS-27 is in fact RS-12M2.

2. The original land-based Topol-Ms are still steadily being deployed in both silo and mobile configurations (the first 3 mobile launchers entered service last year). There's no indication, at this stage, that this new RS-24 is going to replace the Topol-M in production any time soon. The force currently stands at 44 silo-based Topol-Ms and 3 mobile Topol-Ms.

3. The Bulava is not planned to replace the missiles on the Delta IV fleet. The missiles on the Delta IV fleet- R-29RMs (SS-N-23s) are already being replaced by new production, improved R-29PMU (or RMU?) "Sineva" SLBMs as they go through their scheduled overhaul. The Bulava is the missile for the 955 Borey SSBNs (the first of which, Yury Dolgoruku, was taken out of the shipyard in preparation for launch a month or so ago).

Posted by: Doz at June 6, 2007 08:42 PM


Designing a new ICBM is not an overnight ordeal... especially for Russia, who has barely any money to do so in the first place. To say that this is in "response" to the BMD program is pure opportunistic politics and propaganda.

Posted by: Skyler at June 6, 2007 06:21 PM


Good Morning Folks,

In response to lucabrazi's coments, the photo shown in this post of a YEL with the canister is an old one and was discredited by western intell., long ago, clue look at the tires.

AS for the Russian nuclear infrastructure, if youwant to find old line Soviet era scientists go to the Physics or Math Dept's. of most nmajor U.S. Universities. When the Soviet Union went down so did it's nuclear weapons program. For want of employment all the 30-40 year old mid career Scientists left the country and the best were scooped up by the U.K. and the United States.

AS to Russia's abilitry to restart a weapons program, even with $60-70 per barell oil the Russian economy is still one click below Mexico. For Putint to become a player again with the big guy(s) he would have to invest over 20% of the Russian GDP into weapons development, unlikely. The old Soviet Union is dead.

C's comments were pretty much on the money, buy stock in Boeing. Putin's macherations are nothing more then an effort to make the Russsians feel that they are players once again on the world stage.

For Bush the timing couldn't be better since he has become a salesman for Boeing Co. and pushing for a missile defense program for Europe, again protection form who?

North Korea firing a nuclear armed missile (if they had such a thing) over the lenght of Russia to hit Europe, I don't think so. Iran's missile program is not quite where Saddams was. They are still buying North Korean Scuds at least Saddam could make a two stage version that could and did hit Israel. Iran is not yet to this level.

Old myths die hard.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

Posted by: Byron Skinner at June 6, 2007 12:52 PM


Sorry Byron,

You're mixing up your ICBM and SLBM programs. The photo is of a road mobile ICBM as they are deployed in launch canisters on TELs. The failed Bark and troubled Bulava SLBM programs are yet another animal. The currently-discussed MIRVed ICBM is reportedly a modified Topol M--the Russians have to call it a new missile for arms control reasons (at least until 2009) but they've not been above deceptive language like that in the past (wonder why they called them "aircraft carrying cruisers" instead of aircraft carriers? to avoid certain arms control obligations related to the Montreaux convention). The Russians have been steadily deploying new ICBMs annually (after replacing production capabilities that were located outside Russia proper in Soviet times), albeit at a lower rate than in Soviet times, and they have a robust nuclear weapons infrastructure--which the US lacks. They also are awash in oil and gas cash and appear to be investing their defense dollars in nuclear weapons as opposed to real military reform. Test failures for the Bark and Bulava SLBM programs are hardly evidence that they don't have the means. As to motive, it's difficult to argue that they won't continue to invest in strategic forces when they in fact clearly say they will and appear to be doing so--they clearly see value in the exercise if only to shore up the pretense that Russia is a great power.

Posted by: lucabrazi at June 6, 2007 09:51 AM


Byron,
That is, in fact, not a shipping container but a launch canister that is part of the TEL for the road-mobile version of the ICBM.

Posted by: Bill at June 5, 2007 02:39 PM


i'm going to put my tinfoil hat on here and speculate that the soon-departing administration is buying up lots of strategic defense-related stocks. how convenient is it that the US starts laying down (relatively) unilateral plans for BMD and Bush's self-described good friend gets an itchy trigger finger? an arms race is great for business AND politics.

Posted by: C at June 5, 2007 01:07 PM


Good Morning Folks,

Interesting article. The picture shown of a mobile launcher is carring a shipping container not an actual missile. In fact there is little hard evidence to support the claim that the Soviets/Russians ever were ale to develope a WORKING ICBM/Topol M system, let alone a mobile Topol M. In 05 the SSN 27, the SLBM version of the Topol M and the Topol M failed in tests before none other the Putin himseld dressed in his best Bush military costums, five failures in all.

The recent RS 24 test(s) were done from a fix site, perhaps an underground facility. Since the end of the Soviet era it appears that most of this type of display is just sabre rattling to shake up the skittish Americans.

The idea that the current Russia has the ability, means or even the motives to beef up it nuclear/ICBM programs is very much in doubt.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

Posted by: Byron Skinner at June 5, 2007 01:00 PM


This is very interesting, it looks like Vlad is trying to pull off a Reverse Reagan(TM) and get us to spend massive amounts of cash on ABM/BMD/Star Wars Redux, which along with the multi-trillion dollar GWOT should bankrupt the US in less than a decade and allow the Chinese to re-possess the country when we default on all the bonds and other loan papers they carry. Doesn't really matter if the new SS's don't really work (like Star Wars MKI), we still have to counter. Brilliant!

Posted by: Grandjester at June 5, 2007 12:26 PM


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