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Edited by Christian Lowe | Contact

A Window on the Surge

baghdad.jpg

Primary Sources:

The just-released White House interim report on the Baghdad Security Plan, or “surge”...

Initial Benchmark Assessment Report

UPDATE:
...And a statement on the report from the Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Ike Skelton (D - Mo.)...

"The interim report from General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker offers a mixed assessment, but provides little reason to think that we will see significant progress on critical benchmarks relating to Iraqi political progress and national reconciliation in the upcoming September assessment or in the foreseeable future.

"After more than four years, we can no longer afford the Administration's open-ended commitments in Iraq that have failed to bring about a stable Iraq and which increasingly limit U.S. options to address other critical national security concerns.

"The report reinforces my belief that we must start taking steps to responsibly redeploy U.S. forces from Iraq. Responsible redeployment, which would limit the U.S. military to missions such as counter-terrorism, protecting U.S. Embassy personnel, and training Iraqi security forces, is necessary if we expect the Iraqis to take primary responsibility for their country and for their security."

Update II: The Senate Weighs In

From SASC Chairman, Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) -

President Bush tried to paint a picture of the Iraqis making progress on half of the benchmarks for stabilizing their country. But on the benchmarks that matter most – the political goals – the picture is a bleak one of continued failure by the Iraqi leaders.

The President tried to gloss over their failure to make political progress by calling it a “lagging indicator” of the surge strategy’s success, but the real lagging indicator today was the President’s refusal to face the reality that the surge isn’t achieving its stated purpose – giving the Iraqi leaders time and space to compromise their political differences.

Everyone agrees that there is no military solution to the violence in Iraq. Only a political solution among the Iraqi leaders themselves can end the chaos. President Bush acknowledged as much when he announced the troop surge in January, arguing a surge was necessary to give the Iraqi leaders “breathing space” to reach a political settlement.

Six months into the surge, there is no sign that an increased military presence has spurred the Iraqis to make the political compromises that only they can make. In fact, most signs point to the contrary. For example, the Administration’s report confirms: “The Government of Iraq has not made satisfactory progress toward enacting and implementing legislation on de-Ba’athification reform.” And it states: “The Government of Iraq has not made satisfactory progress toward establishing a provincial elections law.”

Yet despite these continued failures, the report repeatedly states: “This does not, however, necessitate a revision to our current plan and strategy.” I, and a strong majority of Americans, disagree.

Even on the benchmarks judged “satisfactory” the report is tainted by a lack of realism. The report states: “The Government of Iraq -- with substantial Coalition assistance -- has made satisfactory progress toward reducing sectarian violence….” How many Iraqis would agree that progress in reducing sectarian violence has been satisfactory? How many Americans agree with that assessment?

Likewise, the report states: “The Government of Iraq has made satisfactory progress toward forming a Constitutional Review Committee (CRC) and then completing the constitutional review.” But the Constitutional Review Committee has made no recommendations on the most pressing issues, and the process has been bogged down in political bickering.

It’s important to remember that these are not just goals we want the Iraqis to achieve; these are benchmarks they set for themselves. They were attached to a letter addressed to me by Secretary of State Rice on January 30, 2007, and confirmed in a subsequent letter from Secretary Rice on June 13, 2007 as having been formally approved by the Iraqi Political Committee which includes the Presidency Council – the President and the two Vice Presidents – as well as the leaders of all the major political blocs in Iraq. Of those 16 benchmarks, no more than three have been achieved.

The bottom line is that this report shows continued failure by the Iraqi leaders to reach a political reconciliation and a continued refusal by the Administration to change course to put pressure on the Iraqi leaders to achieve that political settlement.

-- Christian

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I think everyone is ready to get out the question is "HOW WE GET OUT." There just seems to be no way of communicating with anyone who can do anything about what is going on. All we have to do is dump the "Rules of Engagement" policy aqnd go ahead and end it. This BS came out of the Vietnam era with the excuse being worried about how some uninvolved country whould feel about us moping up the mess. EXAMPLE: The Marines fought their way through Fallujah (the fenally so to speak, of the Anwar Provence assignment). When it reached the end and the organized insurgent forces were traped the poiticians interviened and called "time out" so they could negotiate. They lay down their arms and walk away to regroup somewhere els and start over again.

Posted by: JMMC62 at July 15, 2007 02:04 PM


The effectiveness of the "surge" is a misleading concept. An army can defeat an enemy only if there is a controlling entity in the enemy that will accept defeat.
In the events in Bosnia/Serbia there was a Serbian government that was willing to accept defeat.
In Iraq, the insurgency does not have a controlling entity that can be made to accept defeat. Thus any military action against the insurgency is doomed to fail.
The insurgency can only be brought to an end through political means.

Posted by: Kenneth Crook at July 15, 2007 01:05 AM


Six months into the surge? The reality appears to be that we are just one month into the surge.

http://www.understandingwar.org/IraqReport/IraqReport05.pdf

Posted by: Aussie ArmChair General at July 13, 2007 03:34 AM


That's pretty much my opinion. Either we leave today, and let the place implode like Yugoslavia or Lebanon, or we finish the job to our satisfaction, which requires another 5-10 years. There is no point in leaving next year. There is a solution to this problem, so why walk away now? The lack of creativity in our Foreign Policy is embarrassing.

Posted by: BT at July 12, 2007 09:41 PM


If we are going to pull out of Iraq in 2008, fine, lets start now. But could we please not use euphemisms like "responsible redeployment." If we are going to make full scale civil war, a possible regional war and ethnic cleansing (possibly even genocide) very likely scenarios, can we at least admit that to ourselves and to rest of the world?

I do not share the same pessimism about Iraq that seems prevalent across the country. I also do not expect much change in 08 or 09. When has nation building ever been a five year project? Did anyone outside the Bush administration expect this to be done in two years?

I hate seeing our troops being maimed and killed. I also hate seeing people in general being maimed and killed. If we withdraw prematurely it will be a "responsible redeployment." It will be a redeployment responsible for carnage that will dwarf what we have seen so far.

For all those people that bemoan the damage Iraq has done to the image of the United States you might want to consider that and what it says to countries around the world and far into the future about how we handle our responsibilities.

Posted by: JMD at July 12, 2007 04:12 PM


I guess posting links here doesn't work so goto this link which is the same I tried to post in html

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/2007/07/more-baghdad-summer-politics.html

Posted by: Observer at July 12, 2007 04:02 PM


Besides this report and the spin of the Democrats a good place to go for looking at other aspects of the picture is at an Iraqi Blog of high ratings in this post and the follow on one he recently posted.

Posted by: Observer at July 12, 2007 04:00 PM


Thanks guys, link is fixed...

Posted by: Christian Lowe at July 12, 2007 02:31 PM


link broken

Posted by: k at July 12, 2007 12:29 PM


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