Defense Tech: Another (Quick) Look at the Surge...


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Edited by Christian Lowe \| Contact

Another (Quick) Look at the Surge...

Iraqi police.jpg

I know we covered this subject ad nauseum last week, but I just thought I'd throw one more log on the fire of the "Petraeus Report" assessment melee that's still simmering.

One of the most innovative and trusted "outside experts" in D.C. is Andrew Krepinevich and his stable of "formers" and other "think tankers" at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. It turns out, Krepinevich briefed senate staffers on the 10th, giving his read of the surge.

He's been pretty down the line on the war, critiquing where he sees fit and approving when it looks like something’s working. He’s a strong advocate of counterinsurgency strategy but tends to lean more toward the Rumsfeldian "economy of force" school of thought.

His briefing slides are offered HERE in their entirety. But here’s a look at his “conclusions.”

The Maliki Government is seemingly unable (unwilling?) to affect a national reconciliation — it lacks coercive power, legitimacy, and competence, consequently.

Iraq’s factions are increasingly making their own way, establishing their own control, protecting (or extorting) those people who live under their “rule,” and making their own alliances with foreign powers (e.g., Sunni tribes and US; Shi’a militias and Iran).

The US is slowly but surely seeing its ability to influence events in Iraq wane . . . In part because of a growing perception that the American public has one foot already out the door.

The US command in Baghdad has adapted admirably to changing circumstances, but the situation is dynamic and the path to national reconciliation may no longer lie through the Maliki Government—thus the “Surge Metrics” may be OBE . . . If so . . .

What should succeed them? What is the new way forward? And not just in Iraq, but in the theater of conflict stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush?

-- Christian

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Posted by: fakewatch at October 23, 2008 08:52 PM

"now"? "primarily"?

What was the war before? What will it be tomorrow, or in 2011?

What else is it now -- I mean, not "primarily"? Let's say, secondarily. "Discuss."

Does not feeding the National Guard into a meatgrinder have a place in your philosophy, Horatio?

Posted by: benkei at September 21, 2007 02:02 AM

Bill-Get back to therapy-stay off the computer. Noone believes you ever supported much of anything-the war is now primarily an attempt to bring freedom to the Iraqis while thwarting Iranian ambitions.

Accept it.

Posted by: sam at September 19, 2007 11:18 PM

nice comment bill.

John,
"In part because of a growing perception that the American public has one foot already out the door."

this is what we used to call; CLAPTRAP.

give me a freaking break. Like that has ANY impact whatsoever on the war-fighter dynamic.

Posted by: Hubris Sonic at September 19, 2007 09:34 AM

It kills me how every time some bad news comes out about the war, the yes men all blame the Democrats.

Please! Did the Democrats fire the entire Iraqi army? Did the Democrats go into Iraq with ZERO plans for the occupation? Did the Democrats come up with the great idea to push all the reconstruction contracts to their cronies, all while denying local Iraqis a chance to share in that wealth and rebuild through trickle down economics? (all you Repubs should have loved that)

Wake up. This war (which I was for originally, if only to get Sadaam) is a big farce, all made to pump oil profits by lessening (that's right, not increasing, as we were told before the war) supply through instigated attacks on the pipeline and market uncertaintly. It also feeds the military-industrial complex (which a Republican president pointed out we should fear, by the way) at the expense of both the Iraqi and US taxpayer. You've been cheated, stop lying to yourself and us and admit you were wrong -- I have.

Posted by: bill at September 18, 2007 01:50 PM

All your whining are belong to us!

Posted by: benkei at September 17, 2007 09:20 PM

The US is slowly but surely seeing its ability to influence events in Iraq wane . . . In part because of a growing perception that the American public has one foot already out the door.

Thank you Democrats and your echo chamber in the mainstream media! Your plan to have the US defeated is succeeding! Surrender and retreat are nearly at hand!

Posted by: John at September 17, 2007 05:00 PM

Things can get a lot worse. Rwanda, Congo, Lebanon (but with 5 x the population, Greece in the late '40's, Spain in the '30's

Posted by: Mastro at September 17, 2007 03:19 PM

Another (Quick) Look at the Surge...

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