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Edited by Christian Lowe | Contact

How Small Raids Net Big Gains

sinjar.jpg

The commander in charge of helping local Iraqis organize and fight al Qaeda and other anti-coalition forces said Wednesday that a raid last month netted a treasure trove of information that could spell the doom of al Qaeda terrorist smuggling operations in Iraq and, potentially, worldwide.

The description of the find exemplifies the kind of intelligence American and Iraqi forces are gaining, with the help of local tipsters, and provides a window into how commanders speak with such authority on insurgent ties to Iran and al Qaeda activity in Iraq.

The raid, conducted Sept. 11 in the town of Sinjar near the Syrian border, targeted what Maj. Gen. Kevin Bergner called “a foreign terrorist facilitation cell.”

As coalition forces busted in on the seven-man AQ team, one of them detonated a suicide vest, killing himself and one of his companions, while the U.S. team made short work of the rest.

Aside from disrupting the small smuggling team, coalition forces found “literally terabytes of electronic files,” Bergner said, including 800 names of al Qaeda terrorists – 143 of those either “en route or already delivered” to Iraq.

The intel included the terrorists’ names, passport numbers, home addresses and “their transit routes that were involved in getting them here,” Bergner said in an interview with military bloggers Oct. 10.

The computer files included documents on logistics and administrative activities, “we saw how they spend their money on everything from food, fuel and weapons … and even allocation of money to support some of their families,” Bergner added.

In one macabre find, Bergner said troops obtained copies of suicide pledges “that al Qaeda is using to help lead these individuals towards the performance of a suicide mission.”

Though the raid netted only seven dead AQ terrorists, the information gleaned from it could cripple the group’s operations in Iraq. Home addresses, phone numbers, transit routes, money information, food procurement, ammo, guns…think how many strands of the web were picked up and the down-stream effects those have to the entire AQ network.

I wonder if AQ cells are going to change their record keeping after this. And it also makes me wonder why they keep such detailed operational records. I thought we were being led to believe these groups were “loosely affiliated cells.” Only someone that was being held to strict account would keep such detailed records.

-- Christian

Comments

But barely two months into the July-awarded concept exploration contracts, Lisa Porter, NASA's new associate administrator for aeronautics, told the teams on Aug. 30 that there no longer was funding for a demonstrator. Team members are trying to devise cheaper alternatives for the next phase of research, but turmoil continues in the agency's aeronautics plans.

Posted by: wowpowerleveling at May 26, 2008 01:35 AM


Since this happened a month ago, the vast majority of actionable intelligence value is gone.

At a guess, what we are seeing now is information operations with multiple audiences. We have a victory to report to our own public and allies, AND we have white propaganda aimed at folks like the Saudis and Gulf Arabs telling them we know who is financing al-Qaeda, aka which powerful families are dabbling with terrorism.

This is a very useful tool to get more out of the Saudi and Gulf Arab state intelligence services in exchange for not publishing those names.

Posted by: Trent Telenko at October 14, 2007 09:41 AM



Curious how much they concentrate on AQ in Iraq when they're only about 5% of the insurgent problem.

Maybe it looks better to push the 'foreign agitator angle' - or maybe someone has tunnel vision.

Posted by: Wembley at October 14, 2007 06:25 AM


Hey, its been a month since the discovery, one would imagine most of the followup has occurred several weeks ago. Additional followup will be in months to come but may be irrelevent to the original find. Actionable intel is worked very quickly in Iraq, leftovers for later and political spin as soon as reasonable for a positive spin.

Posted by: gerry at October 12, 2007 07:44 PM


@Patvann:

Are you pissing on everyone here, or anyone in particular? Or, do you just need to piss? If so, take it outside, behind a dumpster, like a man.

FTR, summer soldiers and sunshine patriots make a better impression when they can spell.

I mean, I read a lot of stupid knee jerk liberal AND reactionary bullsh$t here, and elsewhere on teh Internets, but I can hack it. Once upon a time, I took an oath to protect the Constitution, including the First Amendment. I can take the noise to protect the signal, thank you very much.

If you can't hack free speech, move to North Korea, or China, or Iran. If you have something cogent to say about the article, sober up and say it. Otherwise, STFUAGBTW.

Posted by: demophilus at October 12, 2007 12:03 AM


This article is rediculous, why on earth would we ever announce we have credible intel? Why are no other news services carrying this story...BBC network news and cable news have nothing. OTH it sure would be nice to get a break if it were true, but I cant beleive our armed forces would be so stupid as to disclose it.

Posted by: PorcupineTree at October 11, 2007 09:29 PM


I can't imagine this is the sort of thing that would be easy to keep secret.

Mohammed: Hey, you remember how Ali had all those passport numbers, addresses, and transport routes on a computer?
Yasef: Yeah, what about it?
Mohammed: What happened to that guy?
Yasef: No idea.

I'm pretty sure they figured that one out pretty quickly.

Posted by: Juan at October 11, 2007 09:25 PM


Maybe they gleaned the needed information out of the op and acted on it. Therefore thought the value of the message was important and the terrotist know that their network was compromised or that particular cell so keeping it secret no longer mattered that we also know that the generally the level of bombing has significantly dropped off in Iraq.

Posted by: Jamie at October 11, 2007 07:16 PM


Looks as though the BDS-suffering cheerleaders for AQ are well represented within the comments section...Waiting under the rocks, to emerge and diminish any and all good news from the front.

It's been a few days kiddy's, how about asking Mommy for more Cheetoe's and some clean underware (not to mention taking a shower) before the next round of news, cuz ya'll kinda smell like Che.

Posted by: Patvann at October 11, 2007 06:11 PM


Maintaining fake files is counterintelligence SOP. Some of the 800 names might be for real; others may not be. There may be a key pad or notation for or in the list that would tell a user who was for real, or not.

In that scenario, it would behoove our guys to announce that they had the list, and believed it.

Apart from that, maybe the list was encrypted, and they haven't cracked all of it, yet. I'm under the impression that when you force someone to change codes or security arrangements, it makes it easier to compromise both the next, and the last.

Apart from that, I'm under the impression that sometimes it's easier to deconstruct or take down a network after you shake it up a little, watch the links and nodes readjust.

The passport number stuff is interesting. It might show that they weren't too sure about some of the recruits, and needed to track and vet them. Might also show that they have a line to immigration and border control databases in some states -- that would let them cross reference hard passport stamps and actual entry/exit records.

Hard to say what's for real, when you read something like this. "Bodyguard of lies", and all that.

Posted by: demophilus at October 11, 2007 02:15 PM


I can actually see that they might keep track so this stuff, it would make working forgeries easier to make, you know wich passports and ID numbers worked then someone dies and you have all their information to give to the forger to make a new passport with a new picture. They want people that can travel freely from say Iraq to Iran for training. I can see having this infrormation would be important to an organized crime group. Maybe even hold the passports so the fighters can't leave until you let them. But yeah speaking to propoganda I saw a shift in the number and "quality" of videos released since petraus took over. I think the shift was from winnin the hearts and minds of Iraq, wich meant no videos of people being killed, to winning the support for a war where they show the might of the US military more and the successful operations.

Posted by: txzen at October 11, 2007 01:25 PM


This is nothing more than propoganda - you people need to stop drinking the kool-aid..

Posted by: fred at October 11, 2007 01:16 PM


"unless we are assuming that AQ is extremely well organized and can alert its terrorist members instantly"

IM???

"SPAM"?

Innocuous forum postings???

Internet classified ads???

Wrong number cell phone calls??

How many ways do ya want?

Posted by: Nixer at October 11, 2007 12:58 PM


This story strikes me as odd. If I were the U.S. Gov't and I had the home addresses of 800 terrorists, the last thing I'd do is to advertise the fact. Ya, lets hold a press conference and tell them to change their addresses. I see that there is maybe a delay in a few weeks between the seizure and the announcement, but still, it strikes me as suspicious. Here are my guesses. 1) There was no such raid and this is misinformation just to get the enemy to pull back and regroup, 2) The list of 800 is real, but is really old or is a pizza (or whatever Iraqis eat) delivery list (but why the passport numbers?).

The only other possible answer is that there is some reason to believe that the higher-ups in AQ know about the seizure. That means that it took some time to gather and analyze the information. By then, it was too late to create a cover story that might lead AQ leadership to believe that the information was not compromised, (i.e., by demolishing the building with a big bomb after getting away with the intel loot).

I vote for the latter. But even so, unless we are assuming that AQ is extremely well organized and can alert its terrorist members instantly, I still see no reason for the disclosure at this point. Maybe this says more about the high level of organization at AQ than anything else.

Posted by: Snaffler at October 11, 2007 12:13 PM


Open your eyes bro and acknowledge a small victory when you see it.

All I see here is a press release from the US Army. It may bear some resemblance to reality; on the other hand (Pvt Lynch, WMD, Steyr sniper rifles) it may not. So I'm just going to ignore it, thanks.

Posted by: ajay at October 11, 2007 11:36 AM


Spin: The US has been losing the spin war since this started. If it were just this story alone I would take it for what its worth. However, in Iraq it sure matters. BUT... since everyone knows that AQ (global ware on terrorism) is not related to Iraq it won't have any long term affect - right?
It is not until one looks at other events in order to judge whether there is broader implications: It was reported around this time frame that major AQ sites shut down so they can regroup from NIA snoopers ;-).
AQ is dangerous. However, if I were investing in these clowns I wouldn't be happy about these negative returns. I guess it is all part of the same fantasy, I meant spin.

Posted by: Blake at October 11, 2007 11:19 AM


Are you THAT short-sighted "traveler"? Give me a break. Think about the information gained and the people to whom it leads. Home addresses, facilitators, networks, the actual NAMES of the smuggled in terrorists and their whereabouts? That points to much more than just a local operation. That's global and the way that information can be used and exploited goes well beyond Iraq. Open your eyes bro and acknowledge a small victory when you see it. The discussion I'd rather see around here is the different ways this information could be exploited...

Posted by: Christian Lowe at October 11, 2007 11:02 AM


WAHEY!

Posted by: Sunshine Goodness at October 11, 2007 10:06 AM


Talk about OPSEC.....

IF this is true, then somebody really blew it by letting this info out.

I smell BS.....I hope

Posted by: Nixer at October 11, 2007 09:54 AM


That's the same Kevin Bergner who until recently was Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Iraq in the whitehouse.

He sure learned to spin.

And Al Qaeda is collecting the passport numbers of potential suicide bombers. Is Bergner sure he didn't raid a TSA shack?

Posted by: b at October 11, 2007 09:51 AM


Perhaps al Qaeda has fallen into common trap of having to rely on statistics to measure success. The truth about who is winning the battle certainly is being argued and al Qaeda may need to produce internal propaganda to maintain morale.

Posted by: Dave at October 11, 2007 09:02 AM


This article makes you wonder about the OPSEC training within AQ. Seems to me that you would want to use that suicide vest to take out the intelligence information first and then worry about taking out others.

Posted by: Oogie at October 11, 2007 08:33 AM


"That could spell the doom of AQ ops"??--please. This article might as well have been written by the MNF press office.

Serious news please, not PR spin.

Posted by: Traveler at October 11, 2007 08:28 AM


Makes me wonder if there is any truth to the thoery that war is a business for AQ as well.

In other words, in the larger sense AQ is no different than a drug smuggler or pirate, that the bottom line matters in the end.

Posted by: Galrahn at October 11, 2007 08:02 AM


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