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Edited by Christian Lowe | Contact

Resilience Engineering

cyberfight.jpg

If a cyber attack occurred tomorrow, could your organization continue to function? Odds are the answer is no.

In a survey by Spy-Ops, less than 1% of organizations have planned for a cyber attack. What is even more shocking is that less than 1% has business continuity plans that address the threat of a terrorist attack. Both of these events are now foreseeable threats and as such require all organizations to create strategies to minimize these risks. Failure to prepare for these events could bring charges of negligence from all of those who are negatively impacted.

“For companies in America, the issue of liability for cyber-attacks is a significant risk,” said Edward Maggio of Spy-Ops.

Many business organizations are waiting for specific regulations to require action before they implement procedures and safeguards to a cyber-attack. The reality is that with so many publications like this one and other like news article, academic journals or material from a conference available to the public now puts an organization on notice that a cyber-attack is foreseeable.

“Since cyber-attacks are now foreseeable acts that can cripple a business organization, the failure to mitigate an attack can rise to the level of negligence in U.S. civil courts,” Maggio stated. He then went on to say: “The ‘we didn't know’ defense is no longer working in the realm of liability for cyber-attacks.”

Resilience engineering is a relatively recent term given to a collection of activities designed to create the ability for organizations to continue to operate under extremely adverse conditions such as a cyber attack. These activities are rapidly evolving into what is sure to become industry “Best Practices” and some security experts believe it will soon become a regulatory requirement.

Technolytics estimates that a one day interruption of eBusiness could easily exceed $35 billion. If a cyber attack were to occur now or in the near future, it would surely send the already shaky economy into a tail-spin. This is considered Economic Warfare that is just one of the fifteen modalities of UnRestricted Warfare (URW).

Business, Government and Industry need to build resiliency into their systems and operations if we are to be secure.

-- Kevin Coleman

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Posted by: Misxiaoyao at June 9, 2008 03:22 AM


Get organized now & do Sim Runs.
Then U can see your IT IS weakness alone.
ALL companies.
esp Fortune 500 size.
or MNCs.
NO excuse.

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Posted by: runescapeitems at April 13, 2008 07:40 PM


Did you realize 400 banks were robbed by a cyber attack tool? It was first seen back in Mid 2007.

If you physically rob a 1 bank - it is news

If your physically rob 5 banks then you reach Headline Status

If you rob 400 banks online - no one cares!


Google this and see what I mean

SilentBanker 400 Banks

Posted by: Kevin at February 14, 2008 06:33 PM


then why is it that the only place I've seen this write up is in or on mil.com. get it out there. put it in the media, newspapers.put it out over the internet. not only mil.com but microsoft ,google,any and all public information areas. people need to be led to water before they can drink. are haven't you noticed

Posted by: ron pond at February 14, 2008 05:43 PM


To go a step further, I believe it is acceptable for risk to be identified. The business world has done a exceptional job of risk management. I am assuming that the DD (not for politicians who have already proven otherwise) is managing this risk. To avoid confusion I defined RM as
-identifying a possible outcome
-determine the cost fix mitigate
Capability/intent is part of the risk evaluation.

Posted by: Blake at February 14, 2008 02:38 PM


Great Point DC2

People are in denial just how vulnerable we are all. Most people do not realize that last year, a new software vulnerability was reported every 69 seconds and that was a big improvement over the year before. In one closed door meeting with a Fortune 500 company the mood and tone changed from "it can't be that bad" to "It is so bad - much worse that I ever imagined." We are in a critical situation now. Public and private cooperation is needed to respond to this global threat and the interaction on here is typical to that which is going on at a very high level in corporate boardrooms and executive offices around the beltway.

Posted by: Kevin at February 14, 2008 01:10 PM


Are we in politics here?

Why is it that when someone has a credible message, and attacks against that message are refuted, we attach the character of the messenger?

I guess we haven't learned our lesson yet.

DC2

Posted by: DC2 Jennings at February 14, 2008 11:16 AM


Let's get this out right now. I get no financial reward from doing this. In fact about 1/3 of my time is giving closed briefings (FREE) to governmental agencies and private organizations on internet threats. I was proud of what we accomplished at Netscape and I find it necessary to help defend what i/we had a hand in creating. So there is my motivation. I do not want the U.S. to go through what Estonia did. I do not want to see the hundreds of organizations I created their eBusiness strategies be hit and harmed by such attacks.

Posted by: Kevin at February 14, 2008 11:02 AM


Charly,

Blake is absolutely correct with regards to China.

Why would the attach the White House official website? Why are the probing our networks continuously? This has been documented.

They lost millions of men during the Korean War. Why, because we came too close to the Yalu(sp?) River.

These people have not lost that mentality. They just realized that to compete with the US they needed to get more cash and more control of our economy.

Believe it or not, we are more dependent on them than they are on us. And it is becoming more so every day.

Kevin is just stating plain fact and trying to defend those that accuse him of being ignorant or looking for money. He made a good point, look at what happened when the undersea fiber lines were cut recently. China has the ability to do that to the US right now without having to cut a thing.

And to further expound on what this would do to our ability to wage war. What about all those wonderful GPS devices our military uses. Signals are sent to those satellites. Therefore, signals could be sent by others to turn those satellites off or send them crashing back to Earth. If that were to happen, all of this land warrior/FCS stuff would become vaporware.

DC2

Posted by: DC2 Jennings at February 14, 2008 09:39 AM


IBM, for example, has remote sites that house backups to most / all the major banks in the world. Why? millions per second downtime - maybe overstated but the point is in there. DR disaster recovery.
I thought the design of the internet was supposed to take care of these issues? Or is this why the DD built 2 more networks for themselves?

Would China do this if it could? Yes
China would absorb the pain (lack of capital) from us if the CPC thought their power was in question. So don't kid yourself, evaluating China from our perspective doesn't work - Study the Korean War.

I say let em! Then there shoddy undervalued crap won't be available on our shelves anymore! It will give other economies a more equitable go at it. Worst case - maybe all the illegal aliens will go seeking jobs in China.

Posted by: Blake at February 14, 2008 07:09 AM


Kevin-- you should start paying Ward and Christian for the ad space, if you're not already. Hope "Resiliency Engineering"(tm) buys you a new plasma widescreen.

Posted by: mike at February 14, 2008 06:56 AM


Hi Kevin, DC2 etc.,

Yes, cyber attacks do occur, but on a micro level. Why China gets brought up as a potential attacker of US infrastructure I haven't got the faintest idea - except to scare people. If the U.S. cannot do business for a day/week, China would lose out too. China's growth then gets compromised, which leads to increased internal destabilization - not something the Chinese leadership wants. So, yes, the Chinese are good, but why on earth would they do it?

As to Estonia, I have been told the attacks were far more serious then was publicly reported, but again, there's a vast difference between having degraded performance and nothing - and I've yet to read/hear anything that would convince me that anyone has the capability to achieve 'nothing'. But, I'm more than interested in hearing/seeing otherwise.

Posted by: Charly at February 14, 2008 03:58 AM


ohwilleke

A BCP that addresses a cyber war must answer - How will we operate for a day, week and month without the Internet. Everyone jumps to this is an attack on an organization's web site but does not address what happens if the web itself becomes unavailable! Remember we just saw the Pacific backbone cable cut five times in one month. I have been in multiple BCP planning exercises a% is a real number. Also another study suggests only 3% of BCPs address a computer virus.

Posted by: Kevin at February 13, 2008 09:47 PM


The 1% figure is deceptive. Perhaps only 1% of businesses call what they have a "continuity plan", the reality is that a large majority of firms invest substantially in both backup and internet security technologies.

Also, you have to plan to stop the right threats. I have a client with an online business that was economically devistated by a cyber attack.

The trouble is that in the attack my client experienced, like many of the worst of these attacks, it was an inside job with motives more personal than geopolitical. Stranger danger is a real but Horribly incomplete part of the problem; and a true stanger attacking your system from the outside is relatively easy to guard against and respond to compared to a lot of other threats.

Maintaining internal controls in an IT environment that is tight knit, autonomous, for all practical purposes impossible for the principals to meaningfully supervised at a detailed level, and permeated with a corporate culture that embraces the hacker's ethic and thrives on multi-enterprise subcontractors is an inherently difficult thing to manage.

Posted by: ohwilleke at February 13, 2008 07:25 PM


Dear "The Cenobyte"


You are way out of touch!

More than 400 banks attacked

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread327825/pg1

or how about the DNS server attacks
http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:-xN-yu4kjoMJ:www.govtech.com/gt/103819%3Ftopic%3D117671+Internet+attacks+on+Amazon+2007&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us&client=firefox-a

or how about the major supplier of scientific equipment who found a bot attached to the Oracle data base or the hundreds of phishing scams on eBay. Yea no cyber attacks what so ever.

When I was at Netscape we served of 18 million customers on our portal and attacks were frequent. Lat year DoD sites were attacked nearly 3 million times a day.

If you are no a security industry insider, you can not see most of this.

Posted by: kevin at February 13, 2008 05:28 PM


Cenobyte,

You are correct, this never happens. Well.... except in 2000, but I'm sure that was all resolved.

Here is a link:

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/TECH/computing/02/09/cyber.attacks.01/index.html

Or how about this one:

http://www.sci-tech-today.com/story.xhtml?story_id=013001BYFUIG

They could never affect our infrasture either. Oops, maybe I was wrong on that too.

Here is a link:

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/01/20/cia-warns-of-cyber-attacks-on-utilities-is-wall-street-next/

You are correct that most businesses run on LANs. Which run through common COs (Central Offices) and common switches. What happens when those are attacked directly en masse? That's right, no LAN. It would not matter what sort of backups a business had. If the data can't leave the building it is useless. Especially in this decentralized world we live in.

The same equipment and paths we use to view this site is shared by businesses all over the country and world. That would include you local gas station, Ebay, Amazon, Dell, even parts of our government.

The only way to avoid this is to have your own independent network and associated cabling routed from building to building across you entire infrastructure.

DC2

Posted by: DC2 Jennings at February 13, 2008 04:11 PM


This is all crap. It's really just scared tactics from the insurance companies and security contractors. Those of us that acually run systems for large companies (Apparently I am allowed to tell people that I work for a 'Major International Financial Institution') know that this is all pretty much crap. Attacking single sytems with large bot or storm attacks can be bad specially if that business relies heavly on the internet (Most businesses don't, most run via LANs) AND didn't plan for that kind of attack.

Ever wonder why Microsoft, Amazon, Ebay, Slashdot, google, etc never go off line. Do you think it's because they are not a target? Or do you think it's more likley they have systems in place to deal with the attacks.

And as I have said before, give me a break on the global disaster because of internet based attacks. It's a fantacy designed to make money for people that should know better.

Posted by: The Cenobyte at February 13, 2008 03:43 PM


Charly

It already happened in Estonia. The backs were hit so had by the 21gb per second DDoA attack that credit and debit card processing was disrupted during the three week attack!

Posted by: kevin at February 13, 2008 12:28 PM


Adam and other interested. We saw for the very first time the threat of a cyber attack listed in financial filings required by the SEC as a qualifying statement in the area of risks that would negatively impact the companies ability to meet the projected numbers. One of the Big 4 auditors signed was involved in the filing. The company is not a eBusiness but used the web for customer care and order tracking information as well as working with their B2B channel partners. This indicated that a cyber attack is a foreseeable risk and since one publically traded company identified the risk and the Big 4 auditor agreed - the rest will soon have to follow.

Now for your comment about ISPs capabilities. AT THIS TIME A DDoS at the 21GB per second scale against the backbone would impact performance. A DDoS attach would take hours if not days to block all the IP addresses. THERE IS NO SILVER BULLET to block or recover form a DDoS. BTW - a STORM based botnet with the 50 to 80 million computers currently infected could generate in excess of 46GB to 65 GB per second attack rate.

ADAM if you really want to get into the details drop me an email and we can get on the phone. kgcoleman@technolytics.com

Posted by: Kevin at February 13, 2008 12:16 PM


You guys are looking on a very micro level with idea that a single person will take down a single piece of the global network. To me, cyber attacks can be used as a method of conducting war.

Right now China (DA will love reading this) has probed and attacked numerous websites. This includes shutting down the official White House website.

So what if they have the capacity (and it seems quite plausible) to cripple our entire network infrastructure? You are talking about reverting back to the old paper transaction way of doing things which we are really no longer equipped for.

With our military at bare bones as it is, how easy would it be to ramp up production on everything and create government contracts for outsourcing production with the ability to communicate over a network?

So imagine one day of zero dollar transactions in the US. A state sponsor of such an event such as China could cause crippling effects to our economy. Further eroding our ability to conduct war operations.

Spare fibers mean nothing if the equipment sitting in the racks are locked up and can't function properly.

DC2

Posted by: DC2 Jennings at February 13, 2008 10:25 AM


First off I really have no idea how they got any of these numbers.

Another major reason this risk is not factored into BCP or IT general controls boils down to is cost vs. risk of impact to the books. Hell even the energy trading is done weeks/months/years in advance.

All ISP's have ITGC controls for possible mass outage... they have dead fiber sitting in the back ready to light up..

The PCI (payment card industry) has very strict security measures in place to counter cyber threats--- again no idea what they are talking about here... virus? DDOS attacks... pretty vague.

anyway.. my 2 cents.

Posted by: Adam at February 13, 2008 09:53 AM


First off I really have no idea how they got any of these numbers.

Another major reason this risk is not factored into BCP or IT general controls boils down to is cost vs. risk of impact to the books. Hell even the energy trading is done weeks/months/years in advance.

All ISP's have ITGC controls for possible mass outage... they have dead fiber sitting in the back ready to light up..

The PCI (payment card industry) has very strict security measures in place to counter cyber threats--- again no idea what they are talking about here... virus? DDOS attacks... pretty vague.

anyway.. my 2 cents.

Posted by: Adam at February 13, 2008 09:51 AM


Wellpoint aka Blue cross does have a business continuity site.

I am in it right now. Former NSA monitoring site. Kind of cool actually.

Posted by: Joe at February 13, 2008 09:51 AM


First off I really have no idea how they got any of these numbers.

Another major reason this risk is not factored into BCP or IT general controls boils down to is cost vs. risk of impact to the books. Hell even the energy trading is done weeks/months/years in advance.

All ISP's have ITGC controls for possible mass outage... they have dead fiber sitting in the back ready to light up..

The PCI (payment card industry) has very strict security measures in place to counter cyber threats--- again no idea what they are talking about here... virus? DDOS attacks... pretty vague.

anyway.. my 2 cents.

Posted by: Adam at February 13, 2008 09:49 AM


I say think ahead & plan now.
The need is NOW or soon.
Why wait.

Get organized now & do Sim Runs.
Then U can see your IT IS weakness alone.
ALL companies.
esp Fortune 500 size.
or MNCs.
NO excuse.
Can impact Bottom line & Security alone.

Posted by: stephen russell at February 13, 2008 09:25 AM



1) The issue of liability is something I'd never thought about, very interesting.

2) I suspect that the preparedness numbers are so low because non-international SMEs were included; from a macroecon perspective it's ok if the Indiana Motorparts Co. is out of business for a while....

3)Numbers such as Technolytics remind me of the heydays of the first internet boom...if we only get 1% of the potential global market for wireless bras, we'll provide a 500% ROI. A one day interruption of eBusiness, exactly who and how is anyone going to achieve this?

4) I suspect the biggest concrete threat would be for Mastercard-Visa-AMEX to all lose their payment transaction capacity, it only takes so many days before people start taking food, if their cards don't work. The question is whether there is any attack that could accomplish this, I venture to say, no.

Posted by: Charly at February 13, 2008 09:02 AM


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