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Edited by Christian Lowe | Contact

Navy Short on Shipbuilding Funds

The Navy needs to make Oliver Twist a senior budget official because it needs to ask: "Please, sir, may I have some more?"

That's the essence of comments made by a Congressional Research Service defense expert who said the Navy's reluctance to push for significantly higher budgets in coming years may give lawmakers the wrong view of Navy needs.

This, in spite of the fact the Navy is facing recapitalization needs aren't very different from those of the Air Force -- which has been up front about needing an additional $20 billion a year for the next five years.

"The Navy has been avoiding asking for an increase," said Ron O'Rourke, a national defense specialist at CRS. "If one [branch] is vocal about the need for an increase and another is not, policy lawmakers can develop an imbalanced understanding of funding needs for the services."

What some lawmakers have seen of the Navy's long-range plans has generated skepticism. Some lawmakers, including key members on the House Appropriations and Armed Services subcommittees, have put more faith in Congressional Budget Office fiscal estimates than in the Navy's. That's led some influential lawmakers to consider altering the Navy's ship procurement plans.

On Capitol Hill, O'Rourke told attendees of the Sea-Air-Space expo in Washington, D.C., there has been strong criticism of the Navy's inability to follow its 30-year shipbuilding plan since the service isn't requesting the budget increases that officials believe are necessary to execute the plan on time.

For example, the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee's defense panel, Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), cited the discrepancy between what CBO researchers say the Navy needs to meet its 313-ship fleet in 30 years and what the service proposed in its 2009 budget: The CBO said the Navy would need to spend about $20 billion a year on new ship construction to meet the plan. But the fiscal '09 budget includes just $14.1 billion for ship construction.

O'Rourke also referred listeners to March 14 comments made by Rep. Gene Taylor (D-Miss.) chairman of the Seapower and Expeditionary Forces Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee, to best capture the sense that lawmakers have of the Navy's shipbuilding plans.

"Dismissed as pure fantasy," O'Rourke said. Taylor is a strong backer of Navy programs but is well known for his plain speaking and hard-hitting logic, Hill observers say.

"It [the plan] is totally unaffordable with the resources the Department of Defense allocates to the Navy for ship construction," Taylor said in his March 14 comments. The Navy, he continued, admitted in its annual long-rage report on shipbuilding that it does not have the funding to construct the vessels it will need in the years beyond 2020.

Taylor panned the Navy for its plans to cancel ships that are being built on time -- the LPD 17 class amphibious assault ship, Arleigh Burke class destroyers, Virginia class submarines and T-AKE Dry Cargo Ammunition ships -- in order to go forward with additional Littoral Combat Ships, which are behind schedule and over cost.

According to O'Rourke, members on the armed services committee and the powerful appropriations committee both are considering pushing for changes in what the Navy buys, believing they have a better handle on Navy needs than the sea service's leadership.

-- Bryant Jordan

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"Some of us new LONG before OIF that you have to be prepared for the post-conflict requirements. But guess what, there are no post-conflict requirements until AFTER you win the conflict."---pfcem

WRONG. Read some Sun Tzu. Also, recall the 6 p's. In case you aren't familiar with what I'm talking about. Sun Tzu said that victorious armies set the conditions for victory and THEN go to battle. Defeated armies go to battle and then seek victory. The 6 p's are prior planning prevents piss poor performance. Both maxim's are key to success and done BEFORE NOT AFTER. The DoD has spent half a century preparing to fight the kinds of wars you most often speak of and has decades of a lead on the nearest competitor across the full spectrum of conflict except in the kinds of low intensity wars we most often get into, keep getting into and are much more likely to get into next. I've provided experience, web sites and literature to back that up. I told you, read the book I suggested to you.

"You lack of undersatnding of military history is pathetic." ---pfcem

You say this but your responses don't back it up? I'm living military history. Rather than getting into a pissing match with me, stick with facts.

-DA

Posted by: DarthAmerica at March 24, 2008 06:52 PM


DarthAmerica,

You have it all backwords. NOBODY is saying that the DOD is neglecting high intensity wars (some in the DOD are but the DOD as a whole is not). And NOBODY is saying that we should ignor low-intensity conflict. But people like you sure as hell DO sound as though YOU think that the propablilty of high-intensity conflict is next to zero & we should concentrate fully on low-intensity conflict.

Here is a GREAT BIG hint...OIF only became a low-intensity conflict AFTER the high-intensity conflict had been won! And yes as far as high-intensity conflict goes OIF was comparatively easy & short lived.

Some of us new LONG before OIF that you have to be prepared for the post-conflict requirements. But guess what, there are no post-conflict requirements until AFTER you win the conflict.

You lack of undersatnding of military history is pathetic.

Posted by: pfcem at March 24, 2008 02:01 AM


"NOBODY is saying that the US armed forces do not have to adapt to changing threats (threats which include BOTH high-intensity & low-intensity conflict) - and nobody is saying that low-intensity conflict is not more probable or likely to be more frequent. The difference is that those of us who know what we are talking about know that in so doing we CAN NOT neglect continuing to maintain & advance our armed forces to DECISIVELY win major conventional conflicts. History has proven those who think otherwise to have been wrong again & again..."-pfcem


You idiot open your eyes. You don't have a freakin clue about what you are talking about. The DoD is in no way neglecting high intensity wars. Perhaps you failed to notice whats going on in PACOM. Also who told you that you could be included in the group of people who actually understand these matters? Based on what you right, you clearly don't understand how this works. Reading press reports and spec sheets from the web is one thing. Actually understanding how this all ties together is another.

What history proves is that you need to be prepared for the types of wars you are fighting. Failing that, you better be more agile in your ability to adapt. It has nothing to do with these equipment contest. History has shown that the US Military is most prepared to fight high intensity wars once it has deployed sufficient assets into theater and opened secure SLOC to the conflict area. Modern history also shows that conventional conflicts against nation states typically do not last more than a few months and usually weeks. Analysis shows that the most popularly imagined conventional threat of a conflict over Taiwan would be hard pressed to last beyond 11 to 14 days before the PRC and ROC run dry on modern munitions even without U.S. involvement.

What a lot of people who actually fight these wars found out is that you have to be prepared for the post-conflict requirements. People like to blow off OIF to discuss some ficticious "high intensity" war that will probably never happen because the later is easier to understand. The former and other operations like it are in fact where we fall short.


"Your problem is you are too focused on single aspects of conflict without seeing it as PART of the overal picture."-pfcem


And you have what experience to base this absurd statement on? I edited out your misunderstanding of ASW and simply left the glaringly obvious misunderstanding you have below...


"Plus diesel subs are a threat in high-intensity conflict as well as low-intensity conflict...the difference is that the stakes are MUCH higher in high-intensity conflict."-pfcem


No, the stakes are not higher in a high intensity war. Do you think the British Empire fell to high intensity warfare? How about the Romans? Also did the AQ terror operatives not kill more people in the 9/1 attack than the Japanese did at Pearl Harbor? And on CONUS soil too!!! The GWOT already cost more than twice the cost of WW I in inflation adjusted dollars and more even than we spent in Vietnam, Korea or anywhere else except WW II! The GWOT has lasted longer in real terms than any previous US conflict. It's also covered more geography to include space and cyberspace.

If the stakes you refer to are human lives then you should also know that war has changed and NOBODY credible fights attrition warfare. Don't feel relieved because terrorist and dictators are more than happy to cause mass casualties via WMD. So if megadeaths are your thing Pakistan has several dozen nuclear weapons in a very tense situation with a less than stable government in control. So does North Korea. What stakes were you refering to or are you absolutely ignorant of military history in addition to experience? pfcem you really need to think about what you write and to whom.

-DA

Posted by: DarthAmerica at March 23, 2008 04:33 AM


DarthAmerica,

Perhaps you should actually read what you link to...it DOES NOT support your fantasy of no more high-intensity conventional conflict.

NOBODY is saying that the US armed forces do not have to adapt to changing threats (threats which include BOTH high-intensity & low-intensity conflict) - and nobody is saying that low-intensity conflict is not more probable or likely to be more frequent. The difference is that those of us who know what we are talking about know that in so doing we CAN NOT neglect continuing to maintain & advance our armed forces to DECISIVELY win major conventional conflicts. History has proven those who think otherwise to have been wrong again & again...

Your problem is you are too focused on single aspects of conflict without seeing it as PART of the overal picture.

Take the diesel subs vs Virginia-class subs for example. Is sending a Virginia-class sub to counter a single diesel sub cost effective? Of course not & NOBODY is saying it is (or that it is the best way to deal with a diesel sub). But you CAN send a Virginia-class sub to counter a single diesel sub AND a Virginia-class sub CAN do a whole lot more for you reguardless of the intensity of the conflict. Focusing too much on that single "force-on-force" diesel sub vs Virginia-class blinds you to everything else a Virginia-class sub CAN & DOES do and to how a lot more is going on than just that single diesel sub. Plus diesel subs are a threat in high-intensity conflict as well as low-intensity conflict...the difference is that the stakes are MUCH higher in high-intensity conflict.

Posted by: pfcem at March 22, 2008 12:28 PM


"DarthAmerica,

It would be so nice if you would not put words into other people's mouths. I never said that the current wars are "force on force equipment contest" but the next war that we fight COULD BE.

You haven't supported jack.

YOU are the one you making wild speculation."


Really? Well I'll post for the second time that the US Navy doesn't think the next war will be...

“ASW Concept Of Operations Sees ‘Sensor Rich Way Of Fighting Subs,”
Inside the Navy, February 7, 2005. A January 2005 article stated:


The Navy cannot fight diesel subs with “force on force,” such as sending
one sub to defeat another sub, because that is not cost effective, [Rear Admiral
John Waickwicz, chief of Fleet Anti-Submarine Warfare Command] told Inside
the Navy. For example, the new Virginia-class subs cost about $2 billion each,
while advanced diesel subs cost hundreds of millions of dollars each.


or how about...


http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200710u/kaplan-navy


...who hasn't supported their claim? Who is speculating? pfcem, I'm sure you are a nice person. But you are in way over your head here.

-DA

Posted by: DarthAmerica at March 21, 2008 02:06 AM


DarthAmerica,

It would be so nice if you would not put words into other people's mouths. I never said that the current wars are "force on force equipment contest" but the next war that we fight COULD BE.

You haven't supported jack.

YOU are the one you making wild speculation.

Posted by: pfcem at March 20, 2008 08:08 PM


pfcem,

"There is nothing rational &/or wise to assume that the only wars we will fight in the future will be like those we are fighting now."

I never said only. I said much more likely. Because I supported that with data, it's not an assumption either. It's been a fact for about 60 years. Assuming would be what you do when you make wild speculation about improbable conventional wars like you did in the Raptor thread.

-DA

Posted by: DarthAmerica at March 20, 2008 05:06 PM


pfcem,

"We are more well prepared for low intensity conflicts, asymmetric warfare et cetera than you want people to believe. Don't confuse poor exicution of the current wars with being "unprepared"."

Well since I'm actually present in a conflict I think I have a better idea of what we are(were) prepared for. You have no idea what you are talking about. You still think this is a force on force equipment contest. We call people like that gear queer.


-DA

Posted by: DarthAmerica at March 20, 2008 04:50 PM


"Very simply, there is no modern tool or tool set for winning a COIN war for an invader. The only thing I am aware of is a very ancient strategy. Look up the Latin root of the word 'decimate.' Basically, unless you are willing to be a barbarian and commit what in today's world are considered war crimes, COIN is untenable." ---AhzeeDahak

It's not about tool's, it's skills and application thereof. And it's not necessary to be "barbaric". In fact being barbaric can be counter productive in modern wars. Unless you mean being "precisely barbaric" in which case you are witnessing it live. We are winning too. The problem is not everybody understands what winning is. There is no clear defined end state and there never was. Nor could there be. Winning, especially in COIN, is an evolving living definition. It's possible to win today, lose tomorrow, win again the next day. Then lose 2 years later. The closest thing to winning we can ever hope to achieve out of Iraq and the ME in general would be the reduction of dependence on fossil fuels to the point that it is no longer a national security concern requiring blood and treasure to protect. Until we do that, winning will merely be the security of the source by the the U.S. Army and SLOC to get it to various markets. The domain of the USN. The primary threats aren't massed fleets of ocean going warships either.


"Please, prove me wrong. Show me something. I would love it if I was so far off base as to be a walking joke. It would mean that a lot more of my fellow citizens would be coming home from the Sandbox, and that I could look forward to Iraq being a stable, democratic, free US ally with no US military presence in my lifetime. I wish for that. So throw me a bone, people."---AhzeeDahak

It's not about proving you wrong. But just to show you where you are wrong, what makes you think an allied Iraq means US Military would come home? Look how many allied countries have US troops there long after the war ended and they became stable. S Korea, Japan all over Europe? There are many others.

The problem is your post is a category error. Especially the threat assessment and casualty analysis.


-DA

Posted by: DarthAmerica at March 20, 2008 04:37 PM


DarthAmerica,

There is nothing rational &/or wise to assume that the only wars we will fight in the future will be like those we are fighting now.

Yes the DOD is very well prepared to fight traditional conventional wars beyond any opponents means to resist TODAY but in order to be able to continue to do so the DOD muct continue to move forward to what is essentially a 1980's war machine (the majority of the current force was procured in the 1980's) with a 21st century war machine.

The main reason why we are not prepared for the pace of deployments is because our armed forces were cut too much after the cold war & we are STILL for the most part fighting two regional conflicts at peace-time force levels.

We are more well prepared for low intensity conflicts, asymmetric warfare et cetera than you want people to believe. Don't confuse poor exicution of the current wars with being "unprepared".

What alternate universe are you living in where ALL of our fights for the last 30+ years have been low intensity conflicts, asymmetric warfare & MOOTW?

YOU are the one wanting to fight yesterday's (or today's) war rather than tomorrow's wars.

Posted by: pfcem at March 20, 2008 01:48 PM


"Very simply, there is no modern tool or tool set for winning a COIN war for an invader. The only thing I am aware of is a very ancient strategy. Look up the Latin root of the word 'decimate.' Basically, unless you are willing to be a barbarian and commit what in today's world are considered war crimes, COIN is untenable. "

more rubble, less trouble?

Posted by: Goatrat at March 20, 2008 12:22 PM


"THOSE SAME INSURGENT FORCES AND TERRORIST are far more likely to kill you in the USA than some silly fantasy conventional war"- Darth America

Sigh.

One, insurgents are incredibly unlikely to kill anyone in the USA. By definition, the only insurgents we could even have in the US would be American irregulars, fighting a foreign invader who'd actually conquered territory. Think of that awful 80s movie, 'Red Dawn.' It's not happening this century, move on.

The second half of that statement is that terrorists are more likely to kill the rhetorical 'you' in the US than that 'you' would die in a war with a nation-state. Well, over the last 10 years, the number of US citizens killed by terrorists in the US hovers around 3,000. The number of US citizen-soldiers killed in war during that same period is nearly 5,000. That's using DoD numbers, where helicopter crashes and Hummer roll-overs 'don't count' If you extend the time frame you look at to twenty, thirty, fifty years, the imbalance gets far worse.

An 'insurgency' is a popular uprising against foreign invaders. I keep hearing comments on how horrible it is that we (the US, NATO, the West, whatever) is so unprepared for an insurgency. Okay. Pretend for a moment that I'm the SecDef. Point out for me please the number of counter-insurgency 'operations' in the world in the last 100 years. Now point out to me the ones where the invaders won. Okay, now eliminate all the ones on your list where winning is the same as reducing the combat to some arbitrarily acceptable level. What conflicts are left, and what weapons systems can we use from that list?

It's not a long list.

Very simply, there is no modern tool or tool set for winning a COIN war for an invader. The only thing I am aware of is a very ancient strategy. Look up the Latin root of the word 'decimate.' Basically, unless you are willing to be a barbarian and commit what in today's world are considered war crimes, COIN is untenable.

Please, prove me wrong. Show me something. I would love it if I was so far off base as to be a walking joke. It would mean that a lot more of my fellow citizens would be coming home from the Sandbox, and that I could look forward to Iraq being a stable, democratic, free US ally with no US military presence in my lifetime. I wish for that. So throw me a bone, people.

Posted by: AhzeeDahak at March 20, 2008 10:43 AM


Cut Navy Hqs waste in DC alone.
Combine programs for shipbuilding.
Give Incentives.
Have Euro yards bid for Navy ships- UK, France, Germany?
Recall those ships in the Mothball fleet?

Posted by: stephen russell at March 20, 2008 08:31 AM


"It is downright SCARY how peole like you think that since we are currently fighting two low-intensity "unconventional" wars right now that we can neglect preparing for the posibility that the next war could be a MUCH larger, more intense "conventional" war. "---pfcem

It'd called being rational and spending wisely. The DoD is very well prepared to fight traditional conventional wars beyond any opponents means to resist.

What we aren't prepared for is the pace of deployments, low intensity conflicts, asymmetric warfare, MOOTW and also littoral warfare were ALL of our fights have been for the last 30+ years. That trend is far more likely than these fantasy wars people like to post about out of pure ignorance 99% of the time. I'm much more likely to die TODAY via insurgent in this failed state or in the future in whatever failed state I'm sent to next than I am from a conventional war. Likewise, THOSE SAME INSURGENT FORCES AND TERRORIST are far more likely to kill you in the USA than some silly fantasy conventional war. Look at the data right in fron of your face...

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3865&page=7

...stop fighting yesterdays wars. You are like the "Red Coats" of old getting pin pricked to death via partisans and over commitments.


-DA

Posted by: DarthAmerica at March 20, 2008 03:23 AM


ohwilleke,

Thank god the Russian Navy has failed to thrive or else the USN would be in as much danger as the USAF of not being able to fulfill is worldwide commitments. At least the USN has gotten new ships since the end of the cold war. Think how bad a shape the USN would be in if it had not gotten all those Arleigh Burke DDGs...

It is downright SCARY how peole like you think that since we are currently fighting two low-intensity "unconventional" wars right now that we can neglect preparing for the posibility that the next war could be a MUCH larger, more intense "conventional" war.

The LPD 17 class is a VERY ambitious design. The 12 LPD 17 are intended to replace 4 classes (LPD 4 Austin class, LSD 36 Anchorage class, LST 1179 Newport class & LKA 113 Charleston class) totalling 41 ships .

I agree with you on the LCS. The problem is that the LCS made since at $400 a piece not so much...

Posted by: pfcem at March 20, 2008 12:48 AM


Which is worse for the Navy: Asking for the right amount of funding to buy ships that the Navy has taken a beating on, or asking for fewer funds than CBO and Congress know are necessary? Doesn't the Navy set itself up for just what Chairman Taylor is advocating? Or is the Navy willing to accept more ships no matter the type to avoid expending the political capital to get what it wants? What kind of message is the Navy sending by not obligating funds in the FY 2008 appropriation for the third LCS by the mid-point of the fiscal year?

Posted by: idowhatido at March 19, 2008 08:59 PM


Gene Taylor's approach is a bit like looking for the keys you lost in the dark alley under the lightpost because it is easier to see there.

Damn right we can build Arleigh Burke class destroyers, Virginia class submarines and T-AKE Dry Cargo Ammunition ships on time. They are long past the prototyping phase. We have, certainly in the case of the Arleigh Burke class ships, plenty already, and are using the new purchases to replace existing surface combatants before their "due dates" run. Equally important, the threat level faced by blue sea operations of the U.S. Navy is near an all time low. The failure of the Russian Navy to thrive has also reduced the pressure on the U.S. to build more nuclear attack submarines -- the main reason that we are building Virginia Class submarines at the rate we are building them now is to keep the manufacturing infrastructure in place.

The LPD 17 class San Antonios haven't been without contracting mishaps, despite their relatively unambitious design, and even if the ships are ready, the fact of that matter is that the primary customer for this ship, the United States Marine Corps, has its hands full in places like Iraq where you can't use them.

The Littoral Combat Ship, in contrast, is a more urgent need. We are actively engaged in littoral operations in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Our anti-mine warfare force is small and dwindling before its planned replacement arrives. The urgency of threats from coastal submarines has been underlined by multiple incidents over the last couple of years, the LCS is designed to address that threat, and ASW forces were cut back after the Cold War. The littoral anti-piracy mission of the U.S. Navy is more active now than at any time in living memory. The LCS is at the core of the Navy game plan for the next several decades.

Also, while Congressional Research Service staffers are right to note that the U.S. Navy is being less strident about tooting its own horn than the Air Force for comparably urgent needs, I'm not sure that the Air Force has the better of the argument.

We are fighting two regional wars right now, in addition to manning garrisons in places like South Korea and Japan. Fighting these two wars in dreadfully expensive.

The notion that the portions of the U.S. military that are less actively involved in Iraq and Afghanistan can continue to submit business as usual budgets year after year is flabbergasting and shows a failure of leadership.

Posted by: ohwilleke at March 19, 2008 06:59 PM


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